769
FXUS63 KGLD 110607
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1207 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE LATE THIS AFT-EVE, MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF COLBY, KS BETWEEN 6-11 PM CDT. QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
CURRENT MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR
REGION UNDER A PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH A
WEAK TROUGH PRESENT IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THE PATCHY FOG WE HAD
THIS MORNING CLEARED OUT RATHER QUICKLY LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES
AND WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 80S
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ALONG A LINE
APPROXIMATELY FROM FLAGLER, COLORADO TO STRATTON, NEBRASKA. WITH
AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE PRESENT IN THAT AREA, ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS MAXING OUT AROUND 20 KNOTS, SO THAT WILL
LIKELY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE SEVERE, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY
CONDITIONS WITH ANY COLLAPSING STORMS. MAIN HIGHLIGHT FOR THE
DAY WILL BE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP AROUND 3PM WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
WESTERN CWA.
FRIDAY, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER WARM CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 90S. CURRENTLY, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS THE NORTHEAST CWA OUTLOOKED FOR A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE
NORTHEAST CWA IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF
CAPE AND AROUND 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. STEEP LAPSE
RATES ARE ALSO PRESENT WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM
AND LOW LEVEL AROUND 8-9 C/KM. THESE WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
HAIL AROUND 1 INCH AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE A FAIRLY DRY MID-LAYER, SO THAT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR
IN STORMS. HREF PAINTBALLS HAVE STORMS INITIATING IN THE CENTRAL
CWA EAST OF A DRYLINE AS EARLY AS 3PM MDT AND TRAVERSING MOSTLY
NORTHEAST. STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIT THE AREA FROM THE EAST BY
MIDNIGHT. THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE IS WHAT WILL REALLY
DICTATE OUR STORM CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE
FURTHER EAST WOULD REDUCE OUR STORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE, WHILE
A DRYLINE FURTHER WEST COULD INCREASE STORM COVERAGE FOR THE
CWA.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S. IF THE
COLD FRONT LINGERS IN THE AREA, WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS
INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS. LOW CONFIDENCE
(<15%) THAT STORMS WILL OCCUR.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
STARTING SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MONTANA AS A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHWEST SLIDES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY. ONCE
THE LOW-PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND
WILL STAY UNTIL A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMES THROUGH FROM
THE NORTH, EVENTUALLY RETURNING BACK INTO THE RIDGE PATTERN LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES OVER NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE
FIRST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
TRANSITIONS INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80%) THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (50%)
THAT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BROADER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A
DRIER AIR MASS AND A RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FROM MEDIUM TO LOW (50-20%) OVER THE TWO DAYS AS THERE
IS A LARGE VARIABILITY ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH. WHILE THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE (UP TO 45%) FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA, LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA FOR ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN
BASED ON THE SOUTHERLY MOTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE LOW 90S SUNDAY AND DIP INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY ONWARDS, AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S AS A 5-DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD
STARTS TO FORM OVER THE FORECAST AREA THAT COULD POTENTIALLY PUT
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (60%) THAT
TEMPERATURE WILL RISE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WE MOVE BACK INTO
THE RIDGE PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
S TO SSW WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING, PERHAPS GUSTING TO ~25 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE (~13-16Z) PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MCK: A STORM CANNOT BE RULED-OUT IN VICINITY OF THE MCCOOK
TERMINAL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING (~00-03Z
SAT). CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE EXPLICIT MENTION WITH THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
S TO SSW WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNRISE.
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON (~14-21Z). WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SW OR WSW
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE
EVENING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK/RHOADES
LONG TERM...KMK/MOELLER
AVIATION...VINCENT
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