815
FXUS63 KGLD 112010
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
210 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE LATE THIS AFT-EVE, MAINLY NORTH
AND EAST OF COLBY, KS BETWEEN 6-11 PM CDT. QUARTER SIZE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
CURRENT MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR AND 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR REGION
IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED DRYLINE HAS SET UP ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CWA. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S FORECAST, THE DRYLINE HAS SET UP
FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS ORIGINALLY HAD IT. THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT
OUR STORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HREF ENSEMBLE PAINTBALLS ONLY
HAVE ONE MEMBER SHOWING STORMS INITIATE AROUND 5 PM CDT ALONG A LINE
FROM SHERMAN COUNTY TO RED WILLOW. IF STORMS MANAGE TO FORM, THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE POP-UP NATURE AND LAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
HAZARD WISE, MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS WILL BE HAIL AROUND AN INCH
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. A STRONGER OR COLLAPSING STORM COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WITH AROUND 2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND AROUND 40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING A FAIRLY DRY MID-LAYER WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 10 AND 0-
3 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20. THESE, ALONG WITH GENERAL LACK OF FORCING,
WILL LIKELY BE THE LIMITING FACTORS IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
LONGEVITY. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP WITH MID AND LOWER LEVELS AROUND 7-
8 C/KM, SO IF A STORM CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF DESPITE THE WEAKER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT, UP TO 2 INCH HAIL COULD OCCUR.
FOR SATURDAY, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER DUE TO AN EARLY
MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER IN THE AREA, SO CONDITIONS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS AROUND
25 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A STRONG JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE CREATING A WINDY DAY FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN CWA AND GUSTS UP TO 40 FOR THE WESTERN CWA.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSAGES WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE DUE
TO LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM MDT THU SEP 10 2026
STARTING SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO AMPLIFY IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO MONTANA AS A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHWEST SLIDES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY. ONCE
THE LOW-PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND
WILL STAY UNTIL A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMES THROUGH FROM
THE NORTH, EVENTUALLY RETURNING BACK INTO THE RIDGE PATTERN LATE
IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES OVER NEXT WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE
FIRST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
TRANSITIONS INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ON
TUESDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (80%) THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (50%)
THAT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS LOOK TO BE
SIMILAR TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A BROADER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING A
DRIER AIR MASS AND A RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE AREA. CONFIDENCE
DECREASES FROM MEDIUM TO LOW (50-20%) OVER THE TWO DAYS AS THERE
IS A LARGE VARIABILITY ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH. WHILE THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE (UP TO 45%) FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA, LATEST GUIDANCE FAVORS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA FOR ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN
BASED ON THE SOUTHERLY MOTION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE LOW 90S SUNDAY AND DIP INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S MONDAY. FOR TUESDAY ONWARDS, AFTERNOON
HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 70S AS A 5-DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD
STARTS TO FORM OVER THE FORECAST AREA THAT COULD POTENTIALLY PUT
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (60%) THAT
TEMPERATURE WILL RISE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WE MOVE BACK INTO
THE RIDGE PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
FOR KGLD AND KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY UNTIL AROUND 0Z WHEN THEY
SHIFT TO MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY MORNING CAUSING A WIND SHIFT TO MORE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE FOR KMCK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK/RHOADES
LONG TERM...KMK/MOELLER
AVIATION...RHOADES
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