317
FXUS63 KGLD 120537
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1137 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RELATIVELY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.
- MONDAY WILL BE HOT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT BRINGS MUCH
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAY SEE LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- SCATTERED STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
CURRENT MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR AND 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR
REGION IN A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED DRYLINE HAS SET UP ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S FORECAST,
THE DRYLINE HAS SET UP FURTHER WEST THAN MODELS ORIGINALLY HAD
IT. THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT OUR STORM CHANCES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HREF ENSEMBLE PAINTBALLS ONLY HAVE ONE MEMBER SHOWING
STORMS INITIATE AROUND 5 PM CDT ALONG A LINE FROM SHERMAN
COUNTY TO RED WILLOW. IF STORMS MANAGE TO FORM, THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE POP-UP NATURE AND LAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
HAZARD WISE, MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS WILL BE HAIL AROUND AN
INCH AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. A STRONGER OR COLLAPSING
STORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER WITH
AROUND 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND AROUND 40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR.
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY DRY MID-LAYER WITH 0-1 KM
SHEAR LESS THAN 10 AND 0- 3 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 20. THESE, ALONG
WITH GENERAL LACK OF FORCING, WILL LIKELY BE THE LIMITING
FACTORS IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND LONGEVITY. LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP WITH MID AND LOWER LEVELS AROUND 7- 8 C/KM, SO IF A STORM
CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF DESPITE THE WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, UP TO 2
INCH HAIL COULD OCCUR.
FOR SATURDAY, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER DUE TO AN
EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA, SO CONDITIONS WILL BE
BREEZY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE EAST.
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A STRONG JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO SET UP
OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS TO THE
SURFACE CREATING A WINDY DAY FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN CWA AND GUSTS UP TO 40 FOR THE WESTERN CWA.
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSAGES WILL GIVE A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE DUE
TO LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK SHEAR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL START OFF ON THE HOT AND BREEZY SIDE AS
THE AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A POTENT (BUT PROGRESSIVE)
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. DEEPENING LEE TROUGHING, IN RESPONSE
TO THE N ROCKIES TROUGH, WILL LEAD TO MODERATELY BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND EFFICIENT MIXING OF AN IMPRESSIVE LATE
SUMMER LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. LATEST NBM BLEND CALLS FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. FAR S/SE ZONES
MAY BE EVEN WARMER GIVEN EXCEEDANCE VALUES OF 100 DEGREES IN THE
15-25 PERCENT RANGE. ANOTHER CAVEAT TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE
THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONT
SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR JUST N OF THE KS/NE STATE LINE THROUGH
PEAK HEATING, BUT ANY MINOR TRENDS ONE WAY OR ANOTHER COULD LEAD
TO FORECAST CHANGES IN THESE AREAS. FIRE WEATHER SHOULDN'T
BECOME A CONCERN AS LATEST RH FORECASTS GENERALLY KEEP VALUES AT
OR ABOVE 25%. ALSO, WIND SPEEDS MAY ACTUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON (ESP. CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES) WITH CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MAIN QUESTION/POTENTIAL WEATHER IMPACT FOR MONDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. IF STORMS CAN INDEED FORM, CONCEPTUAL MODEL WOULD SUPPORT
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL TO TAP INTO HOT/DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER (INVERTED-V PROFILES) AND PRODUCE
STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS. MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
(~7.5 C/KM), AND HINTS OF LOCALLY ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY (35-45KTS?) COULD ALSO SUPPORT A
LARGE HAIL THREAT. IT'S NOT A FORGONE CONCLUSION THAT EVERYONE
WILL SEE STORMS/RAIN, THOUGH, AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING (AT LEAST INITIALLY) AND BEST UPPER FORCING WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...BUT THIS DOES LOOK TO BE OUR NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (60-80%).
TUESDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AS LATEST
ENSEMBLES SHOW 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 70S. EXCEPTION COULD BE THE FAR S/SE THAT STILL MANAGE TO
WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. REGARDLESS...SOLID 20-25 DEGREES COOLER
THAN MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME WITH A
REFRESHING NE BREEZE. WITH DRIER AIR MAY COME A BRIEF TASTE OF
40S FOR ESP. N/NW ZONES WEDNESDAY AM. HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE N. PLAINS SHOULD KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES GOING THROUGH
MIDWEEK, BUT WOULD EXPECT SOME GRADUAL AIR MASS MODIFICATION
BACK TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXTENDED PERIODS ARE LITTERED WITH OFF AN ON POPS, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN ANY GIVEN PERIOD GETTING PRECIPITATION IS LOW. THE
AREA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A FLATTENED UPPER
RIDGE THAT'S CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL PROMOTE
ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL UPPER MOISTURE AND AT LEAST A FEW WEAK
PERTURBATIONS IN SW UPPER FLOW. THESE COULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT
OF LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE THAT SHIFTS E
DURING THE EVENING, BUT AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2026
GLD: LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
RAP SUGGEST THAT IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE (11-12Z), AND
THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING (POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON). -IF- MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, IMPROVEMENT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH CEILINGS
QUICKLY DETERIORATING TO IFR AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR
VARIABLE WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS IN ASSOC/W A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING (~10Z), FURTHER INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
~25 KNOTS BY SUNRISE (~12Z). BREEZY NE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR
SEVERAL HOURS, THEN DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. NE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON (BY SUNSET) AND ESE OR SE DURING THE EVENING,
NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: LOW CONFIDENCE IN STORM POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING AND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. AS OF
0530Z, THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE BACKBUILT WEST
TOWARD KEARNEY AND HASTINGS. FURTHER BACKBUILDING TOWARD THE
WEST IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS
THE MCCOOK TERMINAL, THOUGH.. GUIDANCE PRESENTLY SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF MCK. RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST THAT MVFR CEILINGS (2000-3000 FT AGL) MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND OR SHORTLY
BEFORE SUNRISE (11-12Z) AND THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING (POSSIBLY INTO THE
AFTERNOON), THOUGH.. THE STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE MCCOOK TERMINAL. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS IN ASSOC/W A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING (~10Z), FURTHER INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
~25 KNOTS BY SUNRISE (~12Z). BREEZY NE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR A
FEW HOURS, THEN DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING.
NE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE E DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON (BY
SUNSET) AND ESE OR SE DURING THE EVENING, NEAR THE END OF THE
06Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK/RHOADES
LONG TERM...THIES
AVIATION...VINCENT
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