835
FXUS63 KGLD 130625
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1225 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND TODAY INTO MONDAY.
- SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFT-EVE. A SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF, LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF COLBY, KS.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TUE-TUE NIGHT. WED MORNING
LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 40'S IN EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT
KS-NE BORDER COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
A PLEASANT, BUT CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA
TODAY AS STRATUS AND HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS TRY TO CLEAR OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER
SIDE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THE UPPER
LEVEL NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER WYOMING. GFS, ECMWF, NAM, AND RAP GUIDANCE ARE ALL
FAVORING THE ZONAL PATTERN EVOLVING AS A WEAK OMEGA BLOCK OCCURS
WITH A RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GREAT
PLAINS SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, THE TRI-STATE AREA SHOULD BE UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER WITH EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS
LAKE MANITOBA. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT TO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE STRATUS SLOWLY CLEARING OUT AS OF 12:30 PM MT, THE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE QUITE STABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO LIMITED DIURNAL HEATING. SO FAR WITH THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTHEAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA), THE RAP AND
NAMNEST OUR HANDLING IT THE BEST. BOTH MODELS ARE SHOWING A
SIGNAL FOR PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS, THE
MID-LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR, SO EVEN
THE SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO FORM IF THIS HOLDS TRUE. WITH THIS
INDICATION OF SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME EARLY MORNING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN
CENTRAL KANSAS IT IS POSSIBLE WE SEE STRATUS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SUNDAY PRIMARILY EAST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 40-60% FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE STRATUS DEVELOP, IT SHOULD
BURN OFF AROUND MID-DAY SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AROUND 5-15 MPH THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
20-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTION OF THE AREA ONCE THE CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. THE BREEZY WINDS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH GUSTS
DECREASING TO 35-40 MPH SUNDAY EVENING. BASED ON THE 12Z
GUIDANCE, ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN WINDS SHOULD START TO
DECREASE.
THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING OUR NEXT RAIN/STORM CHANCES (50-80%)
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING HOLDS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN INVERTED-V PROFILE WITH
1,500-2,500 J/KG OF SURFACE AND MIXED-LAYER CAPE. WITH FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR OF 35-50 KTS, WE COULD SEE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. LOOKING AT 12Z
CAMS, WE COULD SEE TWO AREAS FOR INITIATION IMPACT THE CWA. THE
FIRST COULD BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS POSSIBLY ALONG
THE FRONT AND ANOTHER POST-FRONTAL OVER EASTERN COLORADO.
DESPITE THE COOLER WEATHER TODAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM BACK UP THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH STRATUS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT
FASTER TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY, WE COULD SEE HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE 80S TO THE LOWER 90S WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER AND WARMEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
AREA AND MAYBE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE AREA. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED MONDAY DESPITE THE HOT, BREEZY
CONDITIONS GIVEN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE 20% ACROSS THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY COULD FALL INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
TUESDAY MORNING, ENSEMBLES SHOW THREE 500-MB FEATURES THAT
DRIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA: A HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES, AND BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CANADA.
A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, SETTING
THE STAGE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS TUESDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BUT LOWER PERCENTILES OF THE NBM SHOW THAT
HIGHS AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER 60S CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN RECENT WEEKS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD
GENERALLY BE FAVORED BETWEEN THE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD BE CAUSED BY
CONTINUED EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST REGION, AND
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION FROM CONVERGENCE ACROSS
KANSAS. CURRENTLY, SURFACE HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE
NORTHERLY EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND WHETHER ANY SOLAR
HEATING WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEVELOP.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY, ALL AREAS IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
AT LEAST A 25% CHANCE OR GREATER OF RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.1
INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO NBM 24 HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE,
WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN, KS TO TRIBUNE,
KS SHOWING A 50-75% CHANCE. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA, AND IS NOT
FAVORED TO BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE, AS LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
80% CHANCE OR HIGHER ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THAT SURFACE
CAPE (A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY) WILL REMAIN BELOW
1000 J/KG. CONVERGENCE ACROSS KANSAS FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW MEETING
EASTERLY FLOW WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NBM 24 HR GUIDANCE SHOWS WEDNESDAY TO BE THE
BETTER DAY FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH A 50-75% CHANCE ACROSS NEARLY
THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN.
ALSO, THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY, AS LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS A 40-45% CHANCE OF SURFACE
CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG BETWEEN KANSAS HIGHWAYS 25 AND 27.
GFS AND EC SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC-6KM SHEAR BETWEEN 20 AND 35 KTS,
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT MOST THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SUB-SEVERE,
WITH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO THAT COULD PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 60
MPH. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY IS AROUND
5% OR LESS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAVORED TO BE CONVECTIVE
THURSDAY, AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DECREASE AGAIN.
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO BE SLOWLY
MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DURATION OF THE LONG
TERM, THOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE IN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MUTES THIS FEATURE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, GFS AND EC DETERMINISTICS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
WAVE AS A WEAKER ONE, WHICH WOULD INDICATE MOST OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH. AS
LONG AS THE TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WOULD BE MORE LIKELY.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS MAY COOL A LITTLE MORE ONCE THE WAVE MOVES
OVER THE REGION AND NORTHERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES ITSELF. NBM
25TH PERCENTILE SOLUTIONS AND LOWER SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OR
LOWER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
GLD: MVFR CEILINGS (2900 FT AGL AT 0610Z) ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR BY SUNRISE, WITH FURTHER DETERIORATION TO
LIFR POSSIBLE SHORTLY THEREAFTER, ~12-14Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT LOW CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY LIFT AND DISSIPATE DURING THE
LATE MORNING (~16-18Z). WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON, IFR-LIFR CEILINGS MAY RAPIDLY
DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET (~03Z MON), NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY
SUNRISE. S WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE TO 14-18 KNOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MCK: VFR CEILINGS (4700 FT AGL AT 0610Z) ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY SUNRISE. A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
IS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE, ~12-14Z. MVFR CEILINGS MAY PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH.. A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. EITHER WAY, CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR-IFR AFTER SUNSET (01-03Z MON),
NEAR THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SE BY SUNRISE. SE OR ESE WINDS WILL PERSIST DURING
THE DAY, INCREASING TO 12-17 KNOTS DURING THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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