575
FXUS63 KGLD 131744
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND TODAY AND MONDAY.
- BREEZY SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY, MAINLY EAST OF HWY 27 WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-35 MPH
MAY GUST TO 45 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFT-EVE. A SEVERE STORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF, LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF COLBY, KS.
- AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TUE-TUE NIGHT. WED MORNING LOWS MAY
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40'S IN EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT KS-NE
BORDER COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 255 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
OVERVIEW: AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP
THE MAIN BELT OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA TODAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON MONDAY,
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
TODAY-TONIGHT: EXPECT A WARMING TREND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE DAKOTAS/NORTHERN PLAINS (AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS) SHIFTS EAST
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, THOUGH.. ONGOING ELEVATED
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING MAY TEMPORARILY REINFORCE
THE SURFACE RIDGE AND BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATUS WILL ATTENUATE
INSOLATION, DELAYING AIRMASS MODIFICATION.. ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE CLOUD COVER IS MORE LIKELY
TO LINGER INTO OR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80'S IN RED WILLOW/NORTON COUNTIES
TO 80'S AND LOWER 90'S ELSEWHERE, WARMEST SOUTH AND WEST OF
GOODLAND. PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
MONDAY: GLANCING DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LIFTING ENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SUN NIGHT WILL
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE CYCLONE IN NORTHEAST CO MONDAY
MORNING. A TIGHTENING MSLP TO 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LEE CYCLONE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
STRONG SW WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GOODLAND CWA, MAINLY EAST
OF HWY 27 IN NORTHWEST KS WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
30-38 KNOT SW FLOW WITHIN AND THROUGHOUT A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED
LAYER (SURFACE TO 7,500 FT AGL), SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS
~25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO ~45 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY AS THE LEE CYCLONE BROADENS INTO A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST KS.
LOCATIONS EAST OF HWY 83 (OAKLEY, HILL CITY) ARE MORE LIKELY TO
SEE BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH
OF GOODLAND. A SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED-OUT, MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF COLBY WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
RELATIVELY MORE FAVORABLE AND DOWNDRAFTS ENHANCED BY EVAPORATIVE
COOLING WILL ENCOUNTER 30-35 KNOT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
(MORE MOMENTUM TO TRANSPORT TO THE GROUND). SEPARATELY, HIGH-
RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE
CO FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE (GEOGRAPHICALLY/CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED AREAS) WILL PROGRESS DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
TUESDAY MORNING, ENSEMBLES SHOW THREE 500-MB FEATURES THAT
DRIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA: A HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES, AND BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CANADA.
A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, SETTING
THE STAGE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS TUESDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BUT LOWER PERCENTILES OF THE NBM SHOW THAT
HIGHS AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER 60S CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN RECENT WEEKS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD
GENERALLY BE FAVORED BETWEEN THE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD BE CAUSED BY
CONTINUED EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST REGION, AND
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION FROM CONVERGENCE ACROSS
KANSAS. CURRENTLY, SURFACE HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE
NORTHERLY EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND WHETHER ANY SOLAR
HEATING WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEVELOP.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY, ALL AREAS IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
AT LEAST A 25% CHANCE OR GREATER OF RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.1
INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO NBM 24 HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE,
WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN, KS TO TRIBUNE,
KS SHOWING A 50-75% CHANCE. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA, AND IS NOT
FAVORED TO BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE, AS LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
80% CHANCE OR HIGHER ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THAT SURFACE
CAPE (A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY) WILL REMAIN BELOW
1000 J/KG. CONVERGENCE ACROSS KANSAS FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW MEETING
EASTERLY FLOW WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NBM 24 HR GUIDANCE SHOWS WEDNESDAY TO BE THE
BETTER DAY FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH A 50-75% CHANCE ACROSS NEARLY
THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN.
ALSO, THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY, AS LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS A 40-45% CHANCE OF SURFACE
CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG BETWEEN KANSAS HIGHWAYS 25 AND 27.
GFS AND EC SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC-6KM SHEAR BETWEEN 20 AND 35 KTS,
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT MOST THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SUB-SEVERE,
WITH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO THAT COULD PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 60
MPH. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY IS AROUND
5% OR LESS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAVORED TO BE CONVECTIVE
THURSDAY, AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DECREASE AGAIN.
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO BE SLOWLY
MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DURATION OF THE LONG
TERM, THOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE IN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MUTES THIS FEATURE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, GFS AND EC DETERMINISTICS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
WAVE AS A WEAKER ONE, WHICH WOULD INDICATE MOST OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH. AS
LONG AS THE TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WOULD BE MORE LIKELY.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS MAY COOL A LITTLE MORE ONCE THE WAVE MOVES
OVER THE REGION AND NORTHERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES ITSELF. NBM
25TH PERCENTILE SOLUTIONS AND LOWER SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OR
LOWER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
STRATUS IS CREATING MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA TODAY. CEILINGS AND CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE KGLD TERMINAL THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE
SKY CLEARS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVER THE TERMINAL WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 00Z. OVERNIGHT,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
OVER KGLD WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO A CONCERN OVER THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY FROM 06-15Z,
AT ~200 FT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 40-45 KTS.
KMCK IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE STRATUS LINGER POTENTIALLY THROUGH
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING, CREATING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER
00Z EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF
~25-30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH ~13Z. AROUND 13Z, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...KMK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page