992
FXUS63 KGLD 131931
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
131 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SE TO SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF ~20-25 MPH
MAY GUST TO 40 MPH
- SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. A SEVERE
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF, LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO
65 MPH AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF COLBY, KS.
- AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TUE-TUE NIGHT. WED MORNING LOWS MAY
DIP INTO THE UPPER 40'S IN EASTERN CO AND ADJACENT KS-NE
BORDER COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MAKING IT'S WAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE TROUGH IS GRADUALLY EXTENDING
SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING
AND MONTANA. ON MONDAY, THE TRI-STATE AREA SHOULD BE UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
WITH EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA TOWARDS LAKE MANITOBA. THIS
WILL BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA
AS WE START THE WEEK.
SO FAR TODAY THE FORECAST FOR THE STRATUS HAS PANNED OUT AS WE SEE
IT BURN OFF FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR
NOT OUR NORTHWEST CORNER OF COUNTIES WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES OR
IF THEY STAY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CEILINGS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SREF GUIDANCE IS FAVORING THE STRATUS LINGERING THIS
AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN EXPANDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO
OCCUR IN THE EARLY TO LATE MORNING HOURS MONDAY ALONG THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
20-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AS WE SEE A TIGHTENING OF THE 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT WITHIN
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH. THE BREEZY WINDS COULD
LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND SUNRISE
BEFORE DECREASING TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
CAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS IN
REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
CAMS LIKE THE HRRR AND RAP ARE TRYING TO HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS
DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW (LESS THAN 20%). THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING IS WHERE I AM FEELING MORE CONFIDENCE AT 50-60% FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP. SO FAR, IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN
INVERTED-V PROFILE WITH 1,500-2,300 J/KG OF SURFACE AND MIXED-LAYER
CAPE WHEN THERE ARE NOT SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY. WITH FAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR OF 35-50 KTS, WE COULD SEE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. WE COULD
STILL SEE TWO AREAS FOR INITIATION IMPACT THE CWA. THE FIRST COULD
BE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS POSSIBLY ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER OVER EASTERN COLORADO CLOSER TO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IN MODELS WITH THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY,
THE CAPE GENERALLY LOWERS BELOW 1,000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS. ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD TAPER DOWN
IN THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE
MORE SHOWERS AND SUB-SEVERE STORMS LINGER OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA.
12Z GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLING AROUND OUR SOUTHERN
CWA BORDER TUESDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND GENERALLY
SUB-SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT SAT SEP 12 2026
TUESDAY MORNING, ENSEMBLES SHOW THREE 500-MB FEATURES THAT
DRIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA: A HIGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES, AND BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CANADA.
A SHORTWAVE LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, SETTING
THE STAGE FOR COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGHS TUESDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S, BUT LOWER PERCENTILES OF THE NBM SHOW THAT
HIGHS AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER 60S CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN RECENT WEEKS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EVEN THOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD
GENERALLY BE FAVORED BETWEEN THE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD BE CAUSED BY
CONTINUED EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST REGION, AND
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION FROM CONVERGENCE ACROSS
KANSAS. CURRENTLY, SURFACE HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST DEPENDING ON THE
NORTHERLY EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND WHETHER ANY SOLAR
HEATING WILL BE ALLOWED TO DEVELOP.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED TO OCCUR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. TUESDAY, ALL AREAS IN THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
AT LEAST A 25% CHANCE OR GREATER OF RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.1
INCHES OF RAIN ACCORDING TO NBM 24 HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE,
WITH AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM OBERLIN, KS TO TRIBUNE,
KS SHOWING A 50-75% CHANCE. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA, AND IS NOT
FAVORED TO BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE, AS LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS AN
80% CHANCE OR HIGHER ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THAT SURFACE
CAPE (A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY) WILL REMAIN BELOW
1000 J/KG. CONVERGENCE ACROSS KANSAS FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW MEETING
EASTERLY FLOW WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. NBM 24 HR GUIDANCE SHOWS WEDNESDAY TO BE THE
BETTER DAY FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH A 50-75% CHANCE ACROSS NEARLY
THE ENTIRE FORECAST REGION FOR GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN.
ALSO, THERE MAY BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WEDNESDAY, AS LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS A 40-45% CHANCE OF SURFACE
CAPE GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG BETWEEN KANSAS HIGHWAYS 25 AND 27.
GFS AND EC SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC-6KM SHEAR BETWEEN 20 AND 35 KTS,
WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT MOST THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE SUB-SEVERE,
WITH PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO THAT COULD PRODUCE WINDS UP TO 60
MPH. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS OCCURRING WEDNESDAY IS AROUND
5% OR LESS. PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAVORED TO BE CONVECTIVE
THURSDAY, AS INSTABILITY LOOKS TO DECREASE AGAIN.
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO BE SLOWLY
MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DURATION OF THE LONG
TERM, THOUGH IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN WHEN THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE IN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MUTES THIS FEATURE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, GFS AND EC DETERMINISTICS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS
WAVE AS A WEAKER ONE, WHICH WOULD INDICATE MOST OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH. AS
LONG AS THE TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, CONDITIONS
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WOULD BE MORE LIKELY.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS MAY COOL A LITTLE MORE ONCE THE WAVE MOVES
OVER THE REGION AND NORTHERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES ITSELF. NBM
25TH PERCENTILE SOLUTIONS AND LOWER SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OR
LOWER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH
MOVING OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
STRATUS IS CREATING MORE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA TODAY. CEILINGS AND CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
OVER THE KGLD TERMINAL THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE
SKY CLEARS, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVER THE TERMINAL WITH
GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 00Z. OVERNIGHT,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
OVER KGLD WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO A CONCERN OVER THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY FROM 06-15Z,
AT ~200 FT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 40-45 KTS.
KMCK IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE STRATUS LINGER POTENTIALLY THROUGH
SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING, CREATING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. AFTER
00Z EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS OF
~25-30 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH ~13Z. AROUND 13Z, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...KMK
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