354
FXUS63 KGLD 140458
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1058 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY, MAINLY EAST OF HWY 27 WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-35 MPH
MAY GUST TO 45 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. A SEVERE
STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF, LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO
65 MPH AND LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF COLBY, KS.
- AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TUE-TUE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS MAKING IT'S WAY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS TODAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE TROUGH IS
GRADUALLY EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA. ON MONDAY, THE TRI-STATE
AREA SHOULD BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH
DAKOTA TOWARDS LAKE MANITOBA. THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA AS WE START THE
WEEK.
SO FAR TODAY THE FORECAST FOR THE STRATUS HAS PANNED OUT AS WE
SEE IT BURN OFF FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT OUR NORTHWEST CORNER OF COUNTIES WILL SEE
CLEARING SKIES OR IF THEY STAY SOCKED IN WITH LOW CEILINGS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SREF GUIDANCE IS FAVORING THE
STRATUS LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON AND ONCE AGAIN EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THE EARLY TO LATE MORNING
HOURS MONDAY ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER.
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AS WE SEE A TIGHTENING OF THE 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT
WITHIN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH. THE BREEZY
WINDS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
AROUND SUNRISE BEFORE DECREASING TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.
CAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
IN REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME CAMS LIKE THE HRRR AND RAP ARE TRYING TO HAVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW (LESS THAN 20%). THE MIDDLE OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS WHERE I AM FEELING MORE
CONFIDENCE AT 50-60% FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. SO FAR, IT HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN INVERTED-V PROFILE WITH
1,500-2,300 J/KG OF SURFACE AND MIXED-LAYER CAPE WHEN THERE ARE
NOT SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE DAY. WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
SHEAR OF 35-50 KTS, WE COULD SEE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. WE COULD STILL SEE
TWO AREAS FOR INITIATION IMPACT THE CWA. THE FIRST COULD BE OVER
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS POSSIBLY ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY AND ANOTHER OVER EASTERN COLORADO CLOSER TO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IN MODELS WITH THE MORNING SHOWER
ACTIVITY, THE CAPE GENERALLY LOWERS BELOW 1,000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS. ANY SEVERE WEATHER
SHOULD TAPER DOWN IN THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WE COULD SEE MORE SHOWERS AND SUB-SEVERE STORMS
LINGER OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY STALLING AROUND OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER TUESDAY,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE STORMS
ON TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING A STRONG 500-MB HIGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH TROUGHING TO THE
WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SUPPORTED BY AN
ACTIVE JET STREAM LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THESE FEATURES ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BETWEEN
THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGH AND WESTERN TROUGH, HOWEVER THE SURFACE
HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS KANSAS. WARM, WET CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF
THIS PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALL THREE DAYS ARE IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT NBM 75TH PERCENTILE
AND HIGHER SCENARIOS SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN
REACH FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, OR IF SOLAR HEATING
CAN DEVELOP. EVEN SO, RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST, AS NBM 24 HR
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SHOWS A 40% CHANCE OR GREATER OF
RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE PROBABILITIES
ARE HIGHEST ALONG A LINE FROM NORTON, KS TO TRIBUNE, KS
WEDNESDAY (50-70%), AND IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY (60- 75%). MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD RAIN RATHER THAN LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE STORMS, THE EXCEPTION BEING WEDNESDAY. LREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A 40-55% CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
EXPERIENCING SURFACE CAPE (A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY)
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME HIGHER END
SCENARIOS (90TH PERCENTILE AND GREATER) SHOW CAPE MAY RISE ABOVE
2000 J/KG. EVEN SO, THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT FAVORED TO
BE SEVERE, AS GFS AND EC SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC-6KM SHEAR REMAINING
BELOW 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING WEDNESDAY IS 5% OR LESS.
THE FORECAST BEGINS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BY SATURDAY
MORNING, SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS
INCONSISTENT ON WHEN IT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER, ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE AREA, TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A
BIT MORE, IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS IS
REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ADDITIONALLY, NBM 24
HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE DROPS THE PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER
THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN BELOW 40% ON SUNDAY. THESE PROBABILITIES
ARE A LITTLE HIGHER ON SATURDAY, BUT IS LIKELY DUE TO A HIGHER
CHANCE THAT THE TROUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. IN OTHER WORDS, CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED AS LONG AS THE TROUGH STAYS TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, ONCE IT MOVES IN OVER THE
REGION, TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY DROP OFF A
LITTLE BIT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
GLD: WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG ESE-SE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW (~50 KNOTS AT ~1300 FT AGL PER KGLD VELOCITY DATA) MAY YET
FOSTER A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
UNTIL ~10Z, WHEN LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE S-SSW. ASIDE
FROM A LOW (~30%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT LLWS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SE LOW-LEVEL JET THIS
EVENING AND A SIMILARLY STRONG S OR SW LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY MON
MORNING. LLWS WILL ABATE AFTER SUNRISE (~14Z), WHEN SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO ~35
KNOTS. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WSW AND DECREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO ~25 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING (BY ~18Z) AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN FURTHER WEAKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET (~03Z TUE).
MCK: WHILE ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS MAY DETERIORATE TO IFR AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CEILINGS
WILL LIFT/SCATTER TO VFR AROUND SUNRISE (~12Z), AND THAT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT LLWS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SE LOW-LEVEL JET
THIS EVENING AND A SIMILARLY STRONG S OR SW LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY
MON MORNING. LLWS WILL ABATE AFTER SUNRISE (~14Z), WHEN SSW
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO ~30 KNOTS. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WSW AND DECREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN FURTHER WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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