314
FXUS63 KGLD 140908
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
308 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SW WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGEST EAST OF HWY
83 (OAKLEY/HILL CITY) WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-35 MPH MAY
GUST UP TO 50 MPH BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
- A SEVERE STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST
AND SOUTH OF COLBY, KS BETWEEN 3-9 PM CDT. LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. AN INSTANCE OF DIME
TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. MODERATE (50-60%)
CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING.
- AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TUE-TUE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
OVERVIEW: THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
(SW FLOW ALOFT, IN THIS CASE) WILL OVERSPREAD THE TRI-STATE AREA
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS
EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND BROAD
TROUGHING /CYCLONIC FLOW/ ALOFT ENVELOPES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MODEST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ON
TUE.
TODAY: A ~55 KNOT SOUTHERLY LLJ (PER KGLD VELOCITY DATA AT 08Z)
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LEE CYCLONE IN CO WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KS LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONE DEVOLVES INTO A BROAD/BAGGY, ILL-
DEFINED TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST KS. THIS
EASTWARD ADVANCING LLJ WILL FOSTER BREEZY TO STRONG SW WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, STRONGEST (AND LONGEST IN DURATION) EAST OF HWY 83,
E.G. OAKLEY/HILL CITY, WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 30-40
KNOT SW FLOW WITHIN AND THROUGHOUT A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER (UP
TO ~7,500 FT AGL) PRIOR TO ~21Z, SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS
~25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO ~50 MPH BEFORE WEAKENING FROM WEST
TO EAST DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BAGGY SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST KS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF GOODLAND. A SEVERE STORM OR
TWO IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY EAST AND SOUTH OF COLBY WHERE 30-40
KNOT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. EXPECT THAT MODEST (20-30 KNOT) DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP
TO 70 MPH APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, MAINLY BETWEEN ~3-9
PM CDT.
TUESDAY: A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLY MORNING (AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE) COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COOLER AIRMASS, AND
WIDESPREAD STRATUS, WILL LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60'S TO LOW-MID 70'S. BREEZY (20-30 MPH) NE WINDS
IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE TO 10-15 MPH
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ENSEMBLES ARE FAVORING A STRONG 500-MB HIGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES, WITH TROUGHING TO THE
WEST. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG SURFACE HIGH SUPPORTED BY AN
ACTIVE JET STREAM LOOKS TO BE LOCATED IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THESE FEATURES ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BETWEEN
THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGH AND WESTERN TROUGH, HOWEVER THE SURFACE
HIGH IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW ACROSS KANSAS. WARM, WET CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A RESULT OF
THIS PATTERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALL THREE DAYS ARE IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT NBM 75TH PERCENTILE
AND HIGHER SCENARIOS SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CAN
REACH FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA, OR IF SOLAR HEATING
CAN DEVELOP. EVEN SO, RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST, AS NBM 24 HR
PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE SHOWS A 40% CHANCE OR GREATER OF
RECEIVING MORE THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE PROBABILITIES
ARE HIGHEST ALONG A LINE FROM NORTON, KS TO TRIBUNE, KS
WEDNESDAY (50-70%), AND IN NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY (60- 75%). MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD RAIN RATHER THAN LOCALIZED
CONVECTIVE STORMS, THE EXCEPTION BEING WEDNESDAY. LREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A 40-55% CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OF
EXPERIENCING SURFACE CAPE (A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY)
GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOME HIGHER END
SCENARIOS (90TH PERCENTILE AND GREATER) SHOW CAPE MAY RISE ABOVE
2000 J/KG. EVEN SO, THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT FAVORED TO
BE SEVERE, AS GFS AND EC SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC-6KM SHEAR REMAINING
BELOW 30 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
IN SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING WEDNESDAY IS 5% OR LESS.
THE FORECAST BEGINS TO BECOME A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN BY SATURDAY
MORNING, SPECIFICALLY REGARDING THE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS
INCONSISTENT ON WHEN IT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER, ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE AREA, TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A
BIT MORE, IN ADDITION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS IS
REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ADDITIONALLY, NBM 24
HR PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE DROPS THE PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER
THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN BELOW 40% ON SUNDAY. THESE PROBABILITIES
ARE A LITTLE HIGHER ON SATURDAY, BUT IS LIKELY DUE TO A HIGHER
CHANCE THAT THE TROUGH IS STILL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. IN OTHER WORDS, CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED AS LONG AS THE TROUGH STAYS TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, ONCE IT MOVES IN OVER THE
REGION, TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY DROP OFF A
LITTLE BIT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
GLD: ASIDE FROM A LOW (~30%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL TODAY. MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE TUE, AT THE END
OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LLWS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50-55 KT SSW LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL ABATE AFTER SUNRISE (~14Z), WHEN SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30-35
KNOTS. SW WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WSW AND DECREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO ~25 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING (BY ~18Z) AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN FURTHER WEAKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET (~03Z TUE). WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND
INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AT THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING, MVFR-IFR CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY
SCATTERED OUT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY.
LLWS ASSOCIATED WITH A 50-55 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
ABATE AFTER SUNRISE (~14Z), WHEN SSW SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO ~30 KNOTS. SW WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE WSW AND DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
FURTHER WEAKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE AND INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...VINCENT
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