717
FXUS63 KGLD 151831
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1231 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK WESTWARD TO TEXAS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, WHICH DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE NORTHEAST WITH
THE MEAN FLOW. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FORECASTS REMAIN WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND
20 KTS OF 0-500MB SHEAR, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. THOSE PARAMETERS SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
LOW. 0-6 KM MEAN WINDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE, SO
STORMS WILL BE MOVING AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS
DESPITE REPEATED ROUNDS OF MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
FOR TONIGHT, A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT AROUND 20 KTS PRODUCES
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315 K, GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70,
AFTER 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, BUT MUCAPE IS LESS THAN 500 J/KG. LOW CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 02Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT,
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE EAST OF HIGHWAY 23/83 WHERE AN EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT REMAINS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 21Z POSSIBLY REACHING
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA BY 00Z (CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO, GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES), THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST OF UP TO 50 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER
STORMS, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. THE
PATTERN REPEATS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH STORMS MAY
DEVELOP EARLIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TONIGHT, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO THE UPPER 50S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2026
ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE
ROCKIES WILL BE SLIDING TOWARDS THE EAST OVER NORTHERN CONUS
THAT WILL HELP BRING IN A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY ONWARD, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER. ON
MONDAY, GUIDANCE IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH THE RIDGING TO THE
NORTH, BUT THERE IS CONSISTENCY THAT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WOULD BE GOING THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS FORECAST TO BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DURING THE PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS BEING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. FROM SATURDAY ONWARD,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES IN AND A POSSIBLE SECONDARY COLD FRONT MONDAY. THERE IS
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (40-55%) THAT TEMPERATURES WOULD REMAIN IN THE
70S.
SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (75%) FOR
OVERNIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
FRONT BEING FURTHER WEST THAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
ON SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE CONFIDENCE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN STARTING TO DETERIORATE, CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ALSO
BEGINS TO DECREASE HEAVILY (75% TO 30%) AND WOULD LIKELY OCCUR
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ON MONDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME
SHOWERS FAVORING SOUTH OF I-70 AS POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 AM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION WITH VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS.
TONIGHT, MVFR CEILINGS WILL RETURN BETWEEN 03Z-05Z AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. TOWARDS SUNRISE, A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE AT
KMCK WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. CEILINGS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR AT BOTH LOCATIONS THROUGH MID TO LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JTL/MOELLER
AVIATION...024
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