887
FXUS63 KGLD 160454
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1054 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY BACK WESTWARD TO TEXAS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS POSITION WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY AT NIGHT, WHICH DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVE NORTHEAST WITH
THE MEAN FLOW. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FORECASTS REMAIN WEAK
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND
20 KTS OF 0-500MB SHEAR, PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING. THOSE PARAMETERS SHOULD KEEP THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
LOW. 0-6 KM MEAN WINDS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE, SO
STORMS WILL BE MOVING AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING CONCERNS
DESPITE REPEATED ROUNDS OF MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
FOR TONIGHT, A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AT AROUND 20 KTS PRODUCES
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 315 K, GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70,
AFTER 06Z THROUGH ABOUT 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, BUT MUCAPE IS LESS THAN 500 J/KG. LOW CLOUDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 02Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT,
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE EAST OF HIGHWAY 23/83 WHERE AN EASTERLY
WIND COMPONENT REMAINS. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SCATTERED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO AFTER 21Z POSSIBLY REACHING
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA BY 00Z (CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO, GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES), THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS CONTINUING NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUST OF UP TO 50 MPH MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER
STORMS, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. THE
PATTERN REPEATS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH STORMS MAY
DEVELOP EARLIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOWER 80S. COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TONIGHT, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO THE UPPER 50S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A WEAK 500-MB TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF IDAHO,
MONTANA, AND WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK TO
MODEST JET STREAK MAY DEVELOP OVER KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA AND BACK INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WOULD SEEM LIKELY AS THIS SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH
WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT AND PROVIDE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LREF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION WHICH SHOW THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IN
WIND DIRECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE FRONT WOULD HAVE ALREADY COME THROUGH THE
AREA BY THAT TIME. HOWEVER, NBM 75TH AND HIGHER PERCENTILES IN HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S,
WHICH COULD INDICATE A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENTLY, THE FASTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAVORED, WITH ABOUT 75% OF LREF MEMBERS
SUGGESTING HIGHS LOWER THAN THE MID 80S.
NBM GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT A 40-50% CHANCE
OF RECEIVING 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN OR HIGHER SATURDAY, THE EXCEPTION
BEING AREAS NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 24 AND EAST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 25.
HOWEVER, LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS THAN A 25% CHANCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAT SURFACE CAPE (A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY) WILL BE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. AS SUCH, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCALIZED SHOWERS ARE FAVORED AS OPPOSED TO
CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK, BUT OUT OF THE NORTH SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY TEMPERATE, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASING. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS THAN A
25% CHANCE OF RECEIVING GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN SUNDAY
EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 27 AND SOUTH OF I-
70. ANY ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE JUST RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS, AS LREF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER VALUES OF CAPE.
FORECAST GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.
SPECIFICALLY, ENSEMBLES SHOW THE 500-MB TROUGH GETTING MUTED BEYOND
MONDAY, OR SPREAD INCREASING AROUND THE FEATURE. WHEN LOOKING AT
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, THIS IS IN RELATION TO HOW QUICKLY THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TAKING THIS
INTO ACCOUNT, A REASONABLE FORECAST WOULD BE CONDITIONS REMAINING
LIKE SUNDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ONCE
THAT HAPPENS, TEMPERATURES WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEW
TROUGH TO THE WEST, ALONG WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR HEIGHTS BY SUNRISE
FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW
CEILINGS AT KMCK, WHICH MAY EVEN DROP TO MINIMUMS. KGLD ALSO HAS
A THREAT OF HITTING MINIMUMS, BUT THAT IS ONLY AROUND A 30%
CHANCE. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO IMPACT BOTH SITES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPROVING BY NOON, BUT KMCK IS
LIKELY TO SEE MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS AND BY THURSDAY MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...CA
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