685
FXUS63 KGLD 161718
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1118 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1/4 MILE
THIS MORNING.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE PROBABILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LOW.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN; THURSDAY WILL LIKELY SEE THE 90S
AGAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1257 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN INVERTED 850 MB RIDGE AXIS STEMMING FROM THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL WORK TO KEEP THE WINDS WEAK AND
GRADUALLY MAKE THEM SOUTHERLY BY THE LATE MORNING. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH DISTURBANCE FROM THE INCOMING RIDGE TO CAUSE SOME WEAK
CONVECTION TO OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON, NE
TO KIT CARSON, CO KS 25. CHANCES FOR THIS CONVECTION TO OCCUR RANGE
FROM 15-25%, INCREASING FURTHER TO THE EAST. MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE 6-12Z, ALTHOUGH SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST UNTIL
CLOSER TO 18Z. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.
THIS MORNING, STRATUS HAS RETURNED TO THE AREA AND WILL IMPACT THE
AVIATION COMMUNITY. THERE IS ALSO A 50% CHANCE PATCHES OF DENSE FOG
WILL FORM ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 83. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
COOL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA, COOLER IN THE WESTERN CWA.
TODAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT'S BEEN PLAGUING THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS WILL RETROGRADE AND MOVE WEST.
THIS WILL WORK TO CLEAR OUT THE SKY IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
HOURS, AS WELL AS STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL PROMOTE
GUSTS IN THE 15-25 KTS RANGE AND DRAW IN WARM AIR, PUSHING HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
THAT A COMBINATION OF LINGERING CLOUDS AND A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT
IN THE WIND WILL KEEP PARTS OF THE CWA CAPPED OUT IN THE UPPER 70S.
THE 500 MB BOUNDARY ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH WILL BE
SITTING OVER THE CWA THIS EVENING. THIS GIVES US ANOTHER 30-50%
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS CONVECTION MAY PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 12Z
THURSDAY MORNING. THE NBM IS REALLY PUSHING FOR THIS CONVECTION, BUT
LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT IS STILL LACKLUSTER, REDUCING FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IN THIS CONVECTION OCCURRING. IF THE CONVECTION DOES
FORM, THERE WOULD BE A 10% CHANCE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. LOWS LOOK TO COOL INTO THE 60S AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA MAY SEE SOME STRATUS RETURN, TRAILING
THE SHOWERS.
THURSDAY, A LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS WILL PUSH A TROUGH AXIS
OVER THE ROCKIES, LEADING TO A LOW-LEVEL LEE LOW. THIS LEE LOW WILL
FIGHT AGAINST THE HIGH OVER THE MID AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLY AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WE'RE EXPECTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TO GUST UP AROUND 20-35 KTS ACROSS THE CWA, LEADING TO HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S, THANKS TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING.
THE LEE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH NEBRASKA AND LARGELY MISS
THE CWA. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT MAY SWING AS
FAR SOUTH AS U.S. 36, ALLOWING FOR SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS BECOMING SEVERE IS LESS THAN 10%
WITH FLOODING BEING THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY, WE COULD SEE A SURGE OF WESTERLY FLOW REINVIGORATE THE COLD
FRONT FROM THURSDAY AND HAVE IT EXTEND INTO THE CWA. IF THIS OCCURS,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CAP OUT IN THE LOW 80S. HOWEVER, THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE WEAKER, PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM
BEING ANY WARMER THAN THURSDAY. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, EITHER
THE COLD FRONT OR 500 MB VORTICITY HAS A 30-60% CHANCE OF FIRING OFF
SOME CONVECTION, WITH BETTER CHANCES IN COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN, SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOW, BUT THESE MIGHT BE THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A WEAK 500-MB TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF IDAHO,
MONTANA, AND WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK TO
MODEST JET STREAK MAY DEVELOP OVER KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA AND BACK INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WOULD SEEM LIKELY AS THIS SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH
WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT AND PROVIDE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LREF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION WHICH SHOW THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IN
WIND DIRECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE FRONT WOULD HAVE ALREADY COME THROUGH THE
AREA BY THAT TIME. HOWEVER, NBM 75TH AND HIGHER PERCENTILES IN HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S,
WHICH COULD INDICATE A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENTLY, THE FASTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAVORED, WITH ABOUT 75% OF LREF MEMBERS
SUGGESTING HIGHS LOWER THAN THE MID 80S.
NBM GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT A 40-50% CHANCE
OF RECEIVING 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN OR HIGHER SATURDAY, THE EXCEPTION
BEING AREAS NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 24 AND EAST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 25.
HOWEVER, LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS THAN A 25% CHANCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAT SURFACE CAPE (A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY) WILL BE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. AS SUCH, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCALIZED SHOWERS ARE FAVORED AS OPPOSED TO
CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK, BUT OUT OF THE NORTH SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY TEMPERATE, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASING. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS THAN A
25% CHANCE OF RECEIVING GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN SUNDAY
EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 27 AND SOUTH OF I-
70. ANY ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE JUST RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS, AS LREF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER VALUES OF CAPE.
FORECAST GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.
SPECIFICALLY, ENSEMBLES SHOW THE 500-MB TROUGH GETTING MUTED BEYOND
MONDAY, OR SPREAD INCREASING AROUND THE FEATURE. WHEN LOOKING AT
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, THIS IS IN RELATION TO HOW QUICKLY THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TAKING THIS
INTO ACCOUNT, A REASONABLE FORECAST WOULD BE CONDITIONS REMAINING
LIKE SUNDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ONCE
THAT HAPPENS, TEMPERATURES WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEW
TROUGH TO THE WEST, ALONG WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA,
WITH KGLD ALREADY VFR AND KMCK RETURNING TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL. HOWEVER, LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY (GREATER THAN 60%) OF
IMPACTING KMCK WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER (AROUND 20%) THAT KGLD WILL BE
IMPACTED.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...024
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page