222
FXUS63 KGLD 161902
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
102 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A YUMA,
COLORADO, TO HAYS, KANSAS, LINE. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN COOLING TO
NEAR AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TODAY WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING UP IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. A TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, REMNANTS OF A CUT
OFF LOW, WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE
COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SURFACE, THE OLD
FRONT IN SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
BEFORE SURGING SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ON THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO, WITH A TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH
EASTERN COLORADO. ANY OF THESE NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES IN
THE AREA COULD BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK, THERE IS A MODEST INCREASE IN BOTH PARAMETERS
EACH DAY, AND BY SATURDAY INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG
AND SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LOW TODAY AND THURSDAY, BUT MAY START TO SEE A MARGINAL RISK
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TONIGHT, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, BUT LATEST CAMS SHOWING MINIMAL COVERAGE.
MORE IMPACTFUL WILL BE THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY BE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE BY SUNRISE ALONG
AND NORTH OF A YUMA, COLORADO, TO HAYS, KANSAS LINE.
ON THURSDAY, THE FOG WILL TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO BURN OFF,
FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON, MOVING
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN THE EVENING, WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE TRI STATE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES BY,
ENDING BY AROUND 06Z.
FOR FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
AND ENDS UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING IN
THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT, AS WELL AS IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THOSE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THE AREA REMAINS POST FRONTAL ON SATURDAY WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE
WINDS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN COLORADO,
WITH SOME HELP FROM THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST,
THEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPF IS
NOTABLY HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH
12-HOUR PROBABILITIES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY OF GREATER THAN 0.50"
AT AROUND 60% AND EVEN SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (AROUND 20%) OF
GREATER THAN 1", HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S. A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL DROP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID 80S IN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A WEAK 500-MB TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF IDAHO,
MONTANA, AND WYOMING SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A WEAK TO
MODEST JET STREAK MAY DEVELOP OVER KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA AND BACK INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WOULD SEEM LIKELY AS THIS SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH
WOULD COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT AND PROVIDE SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S SATURDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LREF STANDARD
DEVIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION WHICH SHOW THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IN
WIND DIRECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY NOON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE FRONT WOULD HAVE ALREADY COME THROUGH THE
AREA BY THAT TIME. HOWEVER, NBM 75TH AND HIGHER PERCENTILES IN HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S,
WHICH COULD INDICATE A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENTLY, THE FASTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FAVORED, WITH ABOUT 75% OF LREF MEMBERS
SUGGESTING HIGHS LOWER THAN THE MID 80S.
NBM GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT A 40-50% CHANCE
OF RECEIVING 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN OR HIGHER SATURDAY, THE EXCEPTION
BEING AREAS NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 24 AND EAST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 25.
HOWEVER, LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS THAN A 25% CHANCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAT SURFACE CAPE (A MEASURE OF ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY) WILL BE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. AS SUCH, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOCALIZED SHOWERS ARE FAVORED AS OPPOSED TO
CONVECTIVE THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK, BUT OUT OF THE NORTH SUNDAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE
RELATIVELY TEMPERATE, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DECREASING. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS THAN A
25% CHANCE OF RECEIVING GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN SUNDAY
EXCEPT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 27 AND SOUTH OF I-
70. ANY ACTIVITY IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE JUST RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED SHOWERS INSTEAD OF THUNDERSTORMS, AS LREF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER VALUES OF CAPE.
FORECAST GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.
SPECIFICALLY, ENSEMBLES SHOW THE 500-MB TROUGH GETTING MUTED BEYOND
MONDAY, OR SPREAD INCREASING AROUND THE FEATURE. WHEN LOOKING AT
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, THIS IS IN RELATION TO HOW QUICKLY THE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TROUGHING WILL REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TAKING THIS
INTO ACCOUNT, A REASONABLE FORECAST WOULD BE CONDITIONS REMAINING
LIKE SUNDAY UNTIL THE INITIAL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ONCE
THAT HAPPENS, TEMPERATURES WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEW
TROUGH TO THE WEST, ALONG WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA,
WITH KGLD ALREADY VFR AND KMCK RETURNING TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL. HOWEVER, LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY (GREATER THAN 60%) OF
IMPACTING KMCK WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER (AROUND 20%) THAT KGLD WILL BE
IMPACTED.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DAVIS
AVIATION...024
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