053
FXUS63 KGLD 162055
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FOG LIKELY TONIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF A YUMA,
COLORADO, TO HAYS, KANSAS, LINE. THE FOG MAY BE DENSE WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS START TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN COOLING TO
NEAR AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS TODAY WILL DRIFT WESTWARD
THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING UP IN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. A TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, REMNANTS OF A CUT
OFF LOW, WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY. EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE
COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SURFACE, THE OLD
FRONT IN SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
BEFORE SURGING SOUTH AGAIN SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP
ON THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST COLORADO, WITH A TROUGH SOUTH THROUGH
EASTERN COLORADO. ANY OF THESE NUMEROUS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES IN
THE AREA COULD BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK, THERE IS A MODEST INCREASE IN BOTH PARAMETERS
EACH DAY, AND BY SATURDAY INSTABILITY WILL BE AROUND 1000 J/KG
AND SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE LOW TODAY AND THURSDAY, BUT MAY START TO SEE A MARGINAL RISK
BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TONIGHT, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, BUT LATEST CAMS SHOWING MINIMAL COVERAGE.
MORE IMPACTFUL WILL BE THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
OVERNIGHT. THE FOG MAY BE WIDESPREAD AND DENSE BY SUNRISE ALONG
AND NORTH OF A YUMA, COLORADO, TO HAYS, KANSAS LINE.
ON THURSDAY, THE FOG WILL TAKE MOST OF THE MORNING TO BURN OFF,
FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE AFTERNOON, MOVING
INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE IN THE EVENING, WITH MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE TRI STATE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES BY,
ENDING BY AROUND 06Z.
FOR FRIDAY, THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
AND ENDS UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA BY PEAK HEATING IN
THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT, AS WELL AS IN THE POST FRONTAL REGIME IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THOSE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THE AREA REMAINS POST FRONTAL ON SATURDAY WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE
WINDS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN COLORADO,
WITH SOME HELP FROM THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST,
THEN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL QPF IS
NOTABLY HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH
12-HOUR PROBABILITIES THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY OF GREATER THAN 0.50"
AT AROUND 60% AND EVEN SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (AROUND 20%) OF
GREATER THAN 1", HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S. A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL DROP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID 80S IN COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, ON SUNDAY MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO BEGIN
MOVING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA, POTENTIALLY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK JET STREAK. COME MONDAY, THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
OUT OF THE AREA. OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD THEN RETURN TO COME
FROM THE WEST UNTIL AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM LOOK TO REMAIN COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE LATE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
DURING THIS PERIOD, THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA TO SEE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. SUNDAY CURRENTLY
LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION. NBM
GUIDANCE SHOWS AROUND A 30-60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.1 INCHES OF
PRECIP FROM THE EARLY MORNING, AND DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS
AROUND 20-40% EACH AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES LOWER VALUES OF
CAPE AND MODERATE SHEAR, WHICH WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARDS SHOWERS
THAN SEVERE STORMS.
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST BEGINS TO INCREASE. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CONUS. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN US / GULF REGION, WITH SIGNS OF A WEAK TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW
STRONG THE HIGH WILL BE, WHERE ITS CENTER WILL LOCATE, AND
WHETHER THE WEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST MOVES QUICKLY, SLOWLY, OR
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE COULD BE AS FAR NORTH AS THE AR/MO/OK BORDER OR AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF. CERTAIN MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH SWEEPING
THROUGH IN A SINGLE DAY, WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT NEAR STATIONARY
OVER THE AZ/CA/NV BORDER. THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF THE RIDGE AND
TROUGH WILL IMPACT OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THIS UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN UNCERTAINTY AS WE GET CLOSER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT WED SEP 16 2026
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA,
WITH KGLD ALREADY VFR AND KMCK RETURNING TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW OF IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL. HOWEVER, LOW
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70, WITH A HIGH PROBABILITY (GREATER THAN 60%) OF
IMPACTING KMCK WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER (AROUND 20%) THAT KGLD WILL BE
IMPACTED.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...024
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