242
FXUS63 KGLD 272113
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
313 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA THIS MORNING.
- SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN ALONG/WEST US-385 THIS
AFTERNOON.
- CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE MONDAY EVENING TO AS MUCH AS A MEDIUM
TO LIKELY (40-90%) CHANCE LATE MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 321 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FROM HITCHCOCK COUNTY
TO THOMAS COUNTY TO GOVE COUNTY AND COUNTIES EAST. LOW VISIBILITY OF
A HALF MILE OR LESS WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS. FOG WILL
SCOUR OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES
WARM.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE GETTING PUSHED DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA AND RED RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH GETTING
SQUISHED BETWEEN THE DEEP LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK LEESIDE TROUGHING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS. THIS WILL ENHANCE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS KANSAS AND EASTERN COLORADO. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT AND
INCREASING WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. THE GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MITIGATE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS BY EARLY EVENING.
LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK... A LONGER DURATION WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENT IS SETTING UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE RESULTANT HEAVIER SWATH OF
RAINFALL. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH SOME
DETAILS STILL NEEDING TO BE IRONED OUT, THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE (50-70%) THAT A GOOD PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE AREA
WILL SEE AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH. HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF A HALF INCH OR HIGHER ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY ON OVER WESTERN
KANSAS AND NORTHEASTWARDS INTO NEBRASKA. THE SYSTEM THAT IS
BRINGING THIS ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY DIGGING
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC TOWARDS CALIFORNIA. THIS
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE PLAINS. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST, BUT LACK OF INSTABILTY WILL KEEP STORMS SUB-SEVERE. THE
FRONT THEN STALLS AND HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL SET-UP MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
A VARIETY OF WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WET AND WINDY UNTIL
SUNNY SKIES RETURN FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSISTENT
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 60S TO 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
WEDNESDAY MORNING, OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A MOSTLY
SOUTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH A JET STREAK OVERHEAD. THIS JET
STREAK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
CREATING WINDY AFTERNOONS. GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE AREA, WITH OUR COLORADO COUNTIES BEING ON THE HIGHER
END. THERE IS ALSO A CUT OFF LOW IN SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT IS
FORECAST TO TRAVERSE EAST THAT WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE US OUT OF
OUR RAINY PATTERN. MODELS ARE SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES
OF RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WITH A BAND OF
LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL SETTING UP SOMEWHERE IN THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA). THE SPEED AND TRACK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL CUT
OFF LOW AND WHERE A SURFACE LOW SETS UP IN WESTERN KANSAS WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILTY IN THE ENVIRONMENT.
LAPSE RATES ARE SHALLOW, SHEAR IS WEAK AND CAPE IS LACKING.
WEDNESDAY EVENING WOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWING <10% CHANCE OF CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 500 J/KG. LOW CONFIDENCE (<10%) THAT ANY
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM. MODELS ARE IN A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THIS LOW WILL MOVE ON, BUT RAINY
CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA ARE FORECAST TO END SOMETIME THURSDAY
EVENING.
FRIDAY, SUNNY SKIES RETURN TO THE CWA AS WE ENTER A WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED AS PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE LESS
THAN 5% FOR THE TRI- STATE AREA. A WEAK JET STREAK MAY SET UP
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD
CAUSE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS FOR OUR COLORADO COUNTIES WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. FIRE WEATHER IS NOT A
CONCERN AT THIS TIME DUE TO STEADY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES GENERALLY
FORECAST OVER 30%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
GLD: MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MUCH
OF TONIGHT ALONG WITH GENTLE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. MVFR IS POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT AS
FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP, FURTHER DROPPING TO IFR AND POTENTIALLY
LIFR AS FOG THICKENS FURTHER AND CEILINGS LOWER TO AS LOW AS
300 FT WITH 1/2SM VISIBILITY, POSSIBLY LOWER, DURING THE HOURS
SURROUNDING SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID-MORNING
TOMORROW WHILE CEILINGS COULD LINGER, MAINTAINING IFR CEILINGS
INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP TO
NEAR 15-20 KNOTS, GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS.
MCK: CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AT THIS TIME AS FOG HAS
DISSIPATED AND CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS VEER THROUGHOUT TODAY, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT, REDUCING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO MVFR, FURTHER
DETERIORATING TO LIFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS SURROUNDING SUNRISE.
FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW WHILE CEILINGS
COULD LINGER, MAINTAINING IFR CEILINGS INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PIETRYCHA
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...IRISH
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