910
FXUS63 KGLD 292055
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING WIDESPREAD
TONIGHT.
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WHILE
RAINFALL TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND 1-3"
DURING THAT TIME, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PARTS OF
THE AREA TO SEE 3-5" OF RAIN.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS, BUT A BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT, NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN
COLORADO WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING
THAT TIME. MODELS SHOW 12-HOUR QPF (06Z TO 18Z) OF 1-2" ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BUT AS MUCH AS 2-4" WHERE TRAINING OCCURS. CAMS
DO DIFFER WITH HOW FAR NORTH TO BRING THE HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS,
WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THERE WILL BE
SOME RISK OF FLASH FLOODING DURING THAT TIME, IF RAIN CAN FALL
IN A SHORT ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME. A DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH MAY
TEMPORARILY RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE RAIN, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
QUICKLY REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE UPPER LOW
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. REFS SHOWS INSTABILITY IN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS OF 500-1000 J/KG AND AROUND 40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. IF THERE IS ANY CLEARING AT ALL WITH THE DRY SLOT
INSTABILITY COULD BE HIGHER. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE AREAS FOR WIND AND HAIL, AND A
BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SET-UP
OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA ENHANCING 0-3 KM
HELICITY VALUES. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE EVEN INTO
COLORADO, THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED FURTHER WEST. ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY END EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSTABILITY, TRANSITIONING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. THE HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE, WITH EASTERN AREAS SOMEWHAT
FAVORED BY THE LATEST MODEL RUNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT (EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83).
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, AS THE PREVIOUS DAY'S SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA), OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LARGELY REMAIN FROM
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THOUGH TUESDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE JET
STREAM REMAINS TO THE NORTH NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS LIKELY TO SET UP STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGERING
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATED EITHER A
WEAK SHORTWAVE OR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENTLY, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST AT 5-10%, HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE COULD
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEPENDING ON ITS STRENGTH.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO
STAY UNDER 80 DEGREES UNTIL AROUND TUESDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HIGHS
CREEP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY WORK WEEK
REMAIN LOW EACH DAY, WITH POPS CURRENTLY AROUND 5-10%. BOTH THE NBM
AND LREF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF CAPE DAILY.
HOWEVER, AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY, THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY COULD
BRING A SLIGHT BUMP IN POPS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 25 MPH. STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO COME FROM THE
SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS 850 MB JET
DEVELOPS. WHILE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF AREA
OF THE HIGHEST GUSTS, WHICH COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 30-45 MPH.
CURRENTLY THE NBM FAVORS THE COLORADO COUNTIES AS WELL AS AREAS
NORTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF HWY 83 FOR THE HIGHEST GUSTS. WHEREAS
THE LREF FAVORS THE HIGHER GUSTS TO BE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. CURRENTLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW DUE TO
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING ABOVE 30% AND SOIL MOISTURE
LIKELY REMAINING FAIRLY SATURATED FROM THE RECENT
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 AM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
02Z, WITH MAYBE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS DURING THIS PERIOD. AFTER 02Z, CHANCES START
TO INCREASE FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER AND FOG TO TRY AND FORM. ONCE
LOW CEILINGS AND OR FOG FORM, EXPECT THEM TO BRING WORSE FLYING
CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO AROUND 200-500
FT AND VISIBILITY MAYBE REACHING 1SM. THE WORSE CONDITIONS ARE
MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z. AFTER 09Z IS WHEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE FORECAST WITH PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST BE RAIN SHOWERS, BUT A FEW
STORMS MAY MIX IN AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.
NE...FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...KAK
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