510
FXUS63 KGLD 301812
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1212 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
70 IN KANSAS AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS WITH 3-HOUR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3" POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND MAYBE A
FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW RAIN. SHOCKING, I KNOW, BUT IT IS
HAPPENING. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A LARGE UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
THE UPSTREAM LOW AND THE AREA BEING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW HAS LEAD TO A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. PARTS NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER MAY MISS OUT
OR GET MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS WITH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOW IS. BUT,
THE FARTHER SOUTH HAS KEPT THE DRY SLOT SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING. AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE DRY
SLOT SHOULD PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH AND END THE RAIN FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA. THE REASON WHY IT IS IN PARTS IS THE CLEARING MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM INSTEAD AND TRY
AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA, THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER HAS LOWERED A BIT. STILL, WITH THE DRY SLOT PROVIDING
SOME CLEARING/HEATING AND GENERALLY HIGH VALUES OF SHEAR(0- 6KM
AROUND 45 KTS, 0-3KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS), A SEVERE STORM MAY
FORM. IF IT DID FORM, A QUICK TORNADO OR A WIND GUST NEAR 60 MPH
(WITH DOWNSHEAR VECTORS OF 50 KTS) ARE THE POTENTIAL THREATS.
THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BE A THREAT FOR THOSE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36. IF THIS DID OCCUR, THE BEST TIME WOULD
BE BETWEEN 2- 8PM CT.
FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE. THAT BEING SAID, THE OVERALL COVERAGE IN THE AREA SHOULD
BE MUCH LOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AND THE
SURFACE LOW BEGINNING TO PULL AWAY. IF THE DRY SLOT DOES NOT WRAP IN
TOO MUCH, WE SHOULD HAVE ONE LAST BAND OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING
INTO THE AREA. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 AND
FAVOR NW KANSAS. THIS POTENTIAL BAND WOULD ALSO PROVIDE OUR BEST
CHANCE FOR FLOODING. SHOULD THE LOW SLOWDOWN AND OR WRAP ON ITSELF,
THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION WOULD DEVELOP AND REMAIN IN THE SAME AREA,
PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR 2-5" OF RAIN. WITH THIS, THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME FOG MAY BE ABLE
TO FORM WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE. WHILE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER PROVIDING INSULATION AND NORTHERLY WINDS
NOT PROVIDING THE BEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT, IT WOULDN'T BE
UNREASONABLE FOR SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG.
THURSDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST. AGAIN, FOG AND RAIN MAY PERSIST AS LONG AS THE FEATURES DON'T
MOVE TOO QUICKLY. BUT THE CONSENSUS IS THAT AROUND 10AM, MOST OF THE
RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH SHORT OF MAYBE SOME STRAY BANDS. WITH
COLDER AIR AND HIGHER PRESSURE MOVING IN, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL INITIALLY START ELEVATED WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20 GUST 35 MPH, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. BY THURSDAY EVENING, ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND
THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH SOME FOG MAY TRY AND FORM SOUTH
OF I-70 IF ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. IF SKIES
DO MANAGE TO CLEAR, LOWS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 40S, WITH
MAYBE AN UPPER 30 IN EASTERN COLORADO.
FRIDAY, THE UPPER HEIGHT GRADIENT AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ARE
BOTH FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO PROVIDE
A MILD DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S
AND WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 5-10 MPH. WINDS MAY BE A BIT
STRONGER IN EASTERN COLORADO IF A SURFACE LOW OVER THE ROCKIES CAN
PROGRESS ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT. WITH THE LACK
OF FORCING AND MUCH LOWER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE FORECAST. THE RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES ARE THEN FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 40S AGAIN. A FEW UPPER 30S MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF THE WINDS GO MORE CALM INSTEAD OF FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-
15 MPH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, AS THE PREVIOUS DAY'S SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA (CWA), OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LARGELY REMAIN FROM
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THOUGH TUESDAY. DURING THIS PERIOD, THE JET
STREAM REMAINS TO THE NORTH NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND. OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS LIKELY TO SET UP STARTING FRIDAY MORNING AND LINGERING
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN FOR TUESDAY. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY INDICATED EITHER A
WEAK SHORTWAVE OR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. CURRENTLY, THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST AT 5-10%, HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE COULD
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DEPENDING ON ITS STRENGTH.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO
STAY UNDER 80 DEGREES UNTIL AROUND TUESDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, HIGHS
CREEP BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TRI-STATE
AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY WORK WEEK
REMAIN LOW EACH DAY, WITH POPS CURRENTLY AROUND 5-10%. BOTH THE NBM
AND LREF ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW LESS THAN 500 J/KG OF CAPE DAILY.
HOWEVER, AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY, THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ON TUESDAY COULD
BRING A SLIGHT BUMP IN POPS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW 25 MPH. STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO COME FROM THE
SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS 850 MB JET
DEVELOPS. WHILE GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF AREA
OF THE HIGHEST GUSTS, WHICH COULD BE IN THE RANGE OF 30-45 MPH.
CURRENTLY THE NBM FAVORS THE COLORADO COUNTIES AS WELL AS AREAS
NORTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF HWY 83 FOR THE HIGHEST GUSTS. WHEREAS
THE LREF FAVORS THE HIGHER GUSTS TO BE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA. CURRENTLY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW DUE TO
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING ABOVE 30% AND SOIL MOISTURE
LIKELY REMAINING FAIRLY SATURATED FROM THE RECENT
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM MDT WED SEP 30 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VARYING AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE VARYING WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 400-2000FT AND VISIBILITY
BETWEEN 2-8SM. RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND MAY
LINGER AT BOTH SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
INTERMITTENT BREAKS, BUT THE EVENT IS NOT FORECAST TO END UNTIL
CLOSE TO 15-18Z TOMORROW. KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE 21-08Z TIME FRAME. THERE MAY
BE A FEW PERIODS OF VFR CONDITIONS AND NO RAIN/STORMS, BUT KEEP
AN EYE ON THE SURROUNDING AREA AS THOSE CONDITIONS MAY BE
FLEETING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-
027>029-041-042.
CO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COZ090>092.
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...KAK
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