670
FXUS63 KGLD 020601
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1201 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 45 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT
UPPER FEATURE, WITH A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND IT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL INCREASE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PARTS OF THE AREA. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE LATEST NBM PERCENTILES SHOW GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH ALONG HIGHWAY 59 FROM YUMA TO SEIBERT AND WEST. GUSTS
DROP OFF IN KANSAS WITH UP TO 30 MPH GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE,
LOOKING AT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S AND LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD, OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NEAR STATIONARY AS VARIOUS TROUGHS
MOVE TROUGHS MOVE ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WITH THE JET STREAM.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD MOVE
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA AROUND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE
80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY, THE COOLEST DAY IS
FORECAST TO BE SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE WARMEST
DAY IS FORECAST TO BE TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS PERIOD
REMAIN QUITE LOW, WITH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) AROUND 5-
10% EACH DAY. HOWEVER, IF THE POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY, THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POPS.
WINDS FOR THE PERIOD LOOK TO REMAIN MAINLY UNDER 20 MPH, WITH GUSTS
UNDER 25 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH. MONDAY AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS TO BE
THE WINDIEST DAY, WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERNLY WINDS AROUND 10-20 MPH
AND GUSTS REACHING 25-35 MPH. LOOKING AT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, THE
CANADIAN-NH, ECMWF, AND GFS ALL SHOW AN 850 MB JET SET UP OVER THE
TRI-STATE AREA ORIENTED SOUTH TO NORTH, HOWEVER EACH MODEL HAVE THE
JET AT DIFFERENT INTENSITIES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN SLIGHT
DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE SEEN. THE LREF
FAVORS MORE WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH ACROSS THE CWA, WHERE AS
THE NBM HAS THE GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH PRIMARILY WEST OF HWY 83 AND NORTH
OF HWY 40. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW FOR THE CWA, AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 25% ON MONDAY AND RECENT
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY KEEP SOIL MOISTURE FAIRLY SATURATED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AT
KMCK.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...024
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