487
FXUS63 KGLD 022053
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
253 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 45 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, DROPPING OFF
SOME OVERNIGHT, THEN PICKING BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING AS A LARGE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY SLIDES EAST AND LEE
TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE
RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL RESULT
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUING UNTIL THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FELT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHERE GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE, GENERALLY ALONG HIGHWAY 59 FROM YUMA TO SEIBERT
AND WEST. WINDS WILL DROP OFF IN MAGNITUDE FURTHER EAST IN KANSAS
WITH UP TO 30 MPH GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25. WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER TRIES TO DECOUPLE...SO COULD SEE SOME CALM
WINDS FOLLOW BY A PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS. DEPENDING ON WINDS, WE
COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR SCATTERED TO AREAS OF LOW
STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT TOMORROW MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH CLEARING QUICKLY
FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. THE AREA DOES LOOK TO REMAIN CAPPED WITH NO
THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED, THOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO MAY MAKE AN
ATTEMPT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S TO START OFF THE
WORKWEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE A PATTERN OF QUIET WEATHER AS NEXT WEEKEND
APPROACHES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PLACES US ON THE LEE SIDE OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BRIEFLY BECOMING
MERIDIONAL WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
REST OF THE FOUR-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. SAID RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA) TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS THAT NOTHING IS
EXPECTED TO COME FROM THIS OTHER THAN WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING BRIEFLY
TO THE NORTH. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE CWA TUESDAY, BUT THIS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BEFORE WEDNESDAY
ARRIVES. RAINFALL SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
STICK AROUND HEADING INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN
5% FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LIMITED TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO CONSISTENTLY SIT AROUND THE LOW TO MID
80S THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEST DEW POINTS IN THE 40S/50S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS EAST OF KANSAS
HIGHWAY 25 SEEING UP TO LOW 60S.
AS WE HEAD INTO FIRE WEATHER SEASON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) AND
SURFACE WINDS BECOME EVEN MORE RELEVANT FOR THE REGION. FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN PARTICULAR, RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP DURING EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING
TAKES PLACE. RH VALUES IN THE 20S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN
COLORADO COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A 60-70% CHANCE TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS. IN NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA, 40-60% SHOULD BE
COMMONPLACE DURING THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT FROM A SOUTHERLY 5-15 MPH TO MORE FROM THE NORTH ACROSS
THE COLORADO COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ELSEWHERE.
WEAKER 5-10 MPH NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EAST WIND ON WEDNESDAY. A WEST TO SOUTHEAST SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY'S WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST,
BOTH AT 5-15 MPH. GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE LOW HUMIDITY IN EASTERN COLORADO,
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. THUS, FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THERE SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
FOR KGLD AND KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE (10-15%) THAT LIGHT FOG OR LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z GIVEN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PIETRYCHA
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...PIETRYCHA
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