766
FXUS63 KGLD 030514
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1114 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 80'S BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, DROPPING
OFF SOME OVERNIGHT, THEN PICKING BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING AS A
LARGE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLOWLY SLIDES EAST AND
LEE TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL RESULT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW CONTINUING UNTIL THE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FELT ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO WHERE GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, GENERALLY ALONG
HIGHWAY 59 FROM YUMA TO SEIBERT AND WEST. WINDS WILL DROP OFF IN
MAGNITUDE FURTHER EAST IN KANSAS WITH UP TO 30 MPH GENERALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SOME TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TRIES TO DECOUPLE...SO COULD SEE SOME CALM WINDS FOLLOW BY
A PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS. DEPENDING ON WINDS, WE COULD ONCE
AGAIN SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OR SCATTERED TO AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE MIXING OUT TOMORROW MORNING.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
CLEARING QUICKLY FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE. THE AREA DOES LOOK TO
REMAIN CAPPED WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED, THOUGH A SHOWER
OR TWO MAY MAKE AN ATTEMPT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S TO START
OFF THE WORKWEEK.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE A PATTERN OF QUIET WEATHER AS NEXT
WEEKEND APPROACHES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PLACES US ON THE LEE SIDE
OF AN UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
BRIEFLY BECOMING MERIDIONAL WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE FOUR-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. SAID
RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO AMPLIFY A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS WELL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS THAT NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO COME FROM THIS OTHER THAN
WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH. RECENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CWA TUESDAY, BUT
THIS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BEFORE WEDNESDAY ARRIVES. RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND
HEADING INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN
5% FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LIMITED TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO CONSISTENTLY SIT AROUND THE LOW TO MID
80S THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEST DEW POINTS IN THE 40S/50S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS EAST OF KANSAS
HIGHWAY 25 SEEING UP TO LOW 60S.
AS WE HEAD INTO FIRE WEATHER SEASON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) AND
SURFACE WINDS BECOME EVEN MORE RELEVANT FOR THE REGION. FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN PARTICULAR, RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP DURING EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING
TAKES PLACE. RH VALUES IN THE 20S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN
COLORADO COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A 60-70% CHANCE TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS. IN NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA, 40-60% SHOULD BE
COMMONPLACE DURING THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT FROM A SOUTHERLY 5-15 MPH TO MORE FROM THE NORTH ACROSS
THE COLORADO COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ELSEWHERE.
WEAKER 5-10 MPH NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EAST WIND ON WEDNESDAY. A WEST TO SOUTHEAST SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY'S WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST,
BOTH AT 5-15 MPH. GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE LOW HUMIDITY IN EASTERN COLORADO,
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. THUS, FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THERE SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS. IF LIGHT
(10-15 KNOT) SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST AT THE SURFACE, A MODEST S
TO SW LOW-LEVEL JET (~40 KNOTS AT 300-700 FT AGL PER KGLD
VELOCITY DATA AT 0445 UTC) WILL FOSTER LLWS OVERNIGHT (EARLY SAT
MORNING) AT BOTH TERMINALS. LLWS WILL ABATE AFTER SUNRISE, AS
VERTICAL MIXING DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING, AND SW
SURFACE WINDS INCREASE TO ~15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WSW OR W AND DECREASE TO ~10 KNOTS DURING
THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY FURTHER WEAKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON, WHEN
A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE N OR NE AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS (POSSIBLY
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS) AROUND SUNSET, AS MODEST HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024/PIETRYCHA
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...VINCENT
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