973
FXUS63 KGLD 031913
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
113 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 80'S BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND! DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHERLY
WINDS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT (12 AM) MDT. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE 850-700
MB LAYER WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CAUSING WINDS OVER THE AREA TO BE LIGHT ~ 5 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT
THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
ON SUNDAY THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. DURING THE DAY, THE 850-700 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH. THE COOLER AIR WILL LINGER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE AS A LEE TROUGH WILL START TO SLIDE
DOWN ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 MPH WINDS IS ~30-70%, WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 385 IN YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES. THE
NBM IS MORE BULLISH ON WINDS THAN THE LREF, WHICH FAVORS THE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY 20-25%
CHANCE FOR WINDS OF 25 MPH OR HIGHER WEST OF A YUMA TO STRATTON
LINE. SHOULD THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS OCCUR IN THE FORECAST AREA, THE
CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS LOW GIVEN THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOW 50S OVER OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY,
DEEPENING THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS DRIER, WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. THE 80+ TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A
FLAGLER TO GOODLAND TO TRENTON LINE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN
ABOVE FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA AT 20-~60% ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WE WILL
WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTY AS THEY COULD COME
CLOSE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE A PATTERN OF QUIET WEATHER AS NEXT
WEEKEND APPROACHES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PLACES US ON THE LEE SIDE
OF AN UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS THE ROCKIES. FLOW ALOFT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
BRIEFLY BECOMING MERIDIONAL WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFTING BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE FOUR-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. SAID
RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO AMPLIFY A BIT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND
AS WELL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS THAT NOTHING IS EXPECTED TO COME FROM THIS OTHER THAN
WINDS ALOFT SHIFTING BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH. RECENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS DOES SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CWA TUESDAY, BUT
THIS SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BEFORE WEDNESDAY ARRIVES. RAINFALL
SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND
HEADING INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN
5% FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DRY AIR ALOFT PLUS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LIMITED TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO CONSISTENTLY SIT AROUND THE LOW TO MID
80S THROUGH FRIDAY. MODEST DEW POINTS IN THE 40S/50S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS EAST OF KANSAS
HIGHWAY 25 SEEING UP TO LOW 60S.
AS WE HEAD INTO FIRE WEATHER SEASON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) AND
SURFACE WINDS BECOME EVEN MORE RELEVANT FOR THE REGION. FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD IN PARTICULAR, RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIP DURING EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS DIURNAL HEATING
TAKES PLACE. RH VALUES IN THE 20S WILL BE LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN
COLORADO COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A 60-70% CHANCE TO FALL
INTO THE TEENS. IN NW KANSAS AND SW NEBRASKA, 40-60% SHOULD BE
COMMONPLACE DURING THE DAY. SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT FROM A SOUTHERLY 5-15 MPH TO MORE FROM THE NORTH ACROSS
THE COLORADO COUNTIES AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST WINDS ELSEWHERE.
WEAKER 5-10 MPH NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SHIFT TO MORE OF AN
EAST WIND ON WEDNESDAY. A WEST TO SOUTHEAST SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY'S WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST,
BOTH AT 5-15 MPH. GUSTING UP TO 20-25 MPH IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE LOW HUMIDITY IN EASTERN COLORADO,
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OF SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. THUS, FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL THERE SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS
AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER KMCK
FROM ~21-23Z AND KGLD ~20-22Z, WITH THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS
~10-15 KTS BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT ~10
KTS. A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH ~00Z BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE TO AROUND
5 KTS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...AMP
AVIATION...KMK
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