242
FXUS63 KGLD 032020
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW, EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO REACH THE MID 80'S BY TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
PLEASANT FALL WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND! DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND NORTHERLY
WINDS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT (12 AM) MDT. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE 850-700
MB LAYER WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
CAUSING WINDS OVER THE AREA TO BE LIGHT ~ 5 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT WARMER TONIGHT
THAN YESTERDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
ON SUNDAY THE AREA WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. DURING THE DAY, THE 850-700 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH. THE COOLER AIR WILL LINGER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS OVER EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE AS A LEE TROUGH WILL START TO SLIDE
DOWN ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS
GREATER THAN 25 MPH WINDS IS ~30-70%, WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 385 IN YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES. THE
NBM IS MORE BULLISH ON WINDS THAN THE LREF, WHICH FAVORS THE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY 20-25%
CHANCE FOR WINDS OF 25 MPH OR HIGHER WEST OF A YUMA TO STRATTON
LINE. SHOULD THE BREEZIER CONDITIONS OCCUR IN THE FORECAST AREA, THE
CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS LOW GIVEN THE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO
LOW 50S OVER OUR COLORADO COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY,
DEEPENING THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY. AS
THE TROUGH DEEPENS DRIER, WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. THE 80+ TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A
FLAGLER TO GOODLAND TO TRENTON LINE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN
ABOVE FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA AT 20-~60% ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WE WILL
WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON YUMA AND KIT CARSON COUNTY AS THEY COULD COME
CLOSE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTING 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING AS A STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THIS VERSION OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST OTHER
THAN THE ADDITION OF NEXT SATURDAY INTO THE MIX. SEASONABLY PLEASANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE INFLUENCES OUR AREA. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHIFT IN FLOW BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY, BACK TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY, THEN ZONAL WESTERLY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. A FEW SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FOUR-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
SHIFTING THE SURFACE WINDS. GUIDANCE DOESN'T PROJECT PRECIPITATION
AS QPF IS 0 FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA).
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 5%
FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DRY
AIR ALOFT PLUS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LIMITED TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. CLOUD COVERAGE GUIDANCE DOES
NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN 40% THROUGH SATURDAY SO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE CWA. MODEST
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S/50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE EXPECTED
WITH SOME AREAS EAST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 25 SEEING UP TO LOW 60S.
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL START TO BECOME A CONCERN NEXT WEEK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) PERCENTAGES FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGHOUT THE
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. TUESDAY WILL BE A DAY TO MONITOR AS
THERE'S A CHANCE TO SEE VALUES DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THIS AREA.
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TUESDAY AS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY. RH SHOULD CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND THE 20S
WEST OF US-385 HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SIMULTANEOUSLY, WINDS 10-25
MPH, GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, A GENERAL 5-15
MPH WIND IS LIKELY. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WITH RH IN THE 30-50
PERCENTILES SHOULD BE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AT OR EAST OF K-27.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z PERIOD WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS
AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER KMCK
FROM ~21-23Z AND KGLD ~20-22Z, WITH THE CURRENT SOUTHWEST WINDS
~10-15 KTS BECOMING NORTHERLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT ~10
KTS. A FEW GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER BOTH
TERMINALS THROUGH ~00Z BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE TO AROUND
5 KTS AND REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...AMP/KMK
AVIATION...KMK
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