804
FXUS63 KGLD 040716
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
116 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW GOING INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN SETTING IN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS HELPING BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S. FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS, THIS IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY KEEP WINDS LIGHTER AROUND 10
MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WE MIX OUT. EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES
UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, THE COLDER AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE COLDER AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST. BETWEEN THE SHIFTING AIR MASS AND RESULTING 10-15 MPH WINDS
FROM A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MONDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A
TROUGH DIGGING MORE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO BE ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN THE WEAK FLOW WITH THE
RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH, AND THE STRONGER FLOW CAUSED BY
THE TWO FEATURES. THIS ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
STRONG WINDS WITH SPEEDS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35-40 MPH. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE
30% WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, PREVENTING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, EASTERN COLORADO MAY BE ABLE TO DIP
INTO THE 20S OR EVEN THE TEENS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRIER AIR CAN
MOVE IN WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT WOULD LIKELY BE TOO SHORT TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING. WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OTHERWISE, HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER WITH THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S, GENERALLY NEAR 80.
MONDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD MORE EAST INTO
THE PLAINS. AS IT DOES SO, IT IS EXPECTED TO BROADEN AND WEAKEN THE
WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY CALM NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHTER AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THIS VERSION OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST OTHER
THAN THE ADDITION OF NEXT SATURDAY INTO THE MIX. SEASONABLY PLEASANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE INFLUENCES OUR AREA. UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHIFT IN FLOW BRIEFLY TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY, BACK TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY, THEN ZONAL WESTERLY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. A FEW SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FOUR-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
SHIFTING THE SURFACE WINDS. GUIDANCE DOESN'T PROJECT PRECIPITATION
AS QPF IS 0 FOR PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA).
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE LIKELY TO BE LESS THAN 5%
FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DRY
AIR ALOFT PLUS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT LIMITED TO DIURNAL CUMULUS. CLOUD COVERAGE GUIDANCE DOES
NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN 40% THROUGH SATURDAY SO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMEST DAY ACROSS THE CWA. MODEST
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S/50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA ARE EXPECTED
WITH SOME AREAS EAST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 25 SEEING UP TO LOW 60S.
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL START TO BECOME A CONCERN NEXT WEEK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) PERCENTAGES FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGHOUT THE
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. TUESDAY WILL BE A DAY TO MONITOR AS
THERE'S A CHANCE TO SEE VALUES DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THIS AREA.
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE TUESDAY AS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY. RH SHOULD CONTINUE TO LINGER AROUND THE 20S
WEST OF US-385 HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SIMULTANEOUSLY, WINDS 10-25
MPH, GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, A GENERAL 5-15
MPH WIND IS LIKELY. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WITH RH IN THE 30-50
PERCENTILES SHOULD BE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AT OR EAST OF K-27.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES
WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS WEAKENING WITH THE
JET CLOSER TO 35 KTS AS OF 05Z. THE JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN, SO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 07-10 KTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS. WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM
OUT OF THE NORTH/EAST TO OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTH THROUGH 18Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KMK/AMP
AVIATION...KAK
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