355
FXUS63 KGLD 041129
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
529 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
- DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW GOING INTO THE PLAINS. AT
THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN SETTING IN OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS HELPING BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW MOST OF THE AREA TO COOL INTO THE UPPER 40S. FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS, THIS IS FORECAST TO GENERALLY KEEP WINDS LIGHTER AROUND 10
MPH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WE MIX OUT. EVEN WITH SUNNY SKIES
UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE, THE COLDER AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE COLDER AIR MASS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST. BETWEEN THE SHIFTING AIR MASS AND RESULTING 10-15 MPH WINDS
FROM A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
STAY IN THE 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MONDAY, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A
TROUGH DIGGING MORE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO BE ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN THE WEAK FLOW WITH THE
RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH, AND THE STRONGER FLOW CAUSED BY
THE TWO FEATURES. THIS ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE
HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
STRONG WINDS WITH SPEEDS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35-40 MPH. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY ABOVE
30% WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, PREVENTING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, EASTERN COLORADO MAY BE ABLE TO DIP
INTO THE 20S OR EVEN THE TEENS DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRIER AIR CAN
MOVE IN WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW. SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT WOULD LIKELY BE TOO SHORT TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING. WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THE NEXT 24
HOURS. OTHERWISE, HIGHS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER WITH THE SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S, GENERALLY NEAR 80.
MONDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO SPREAD MORE EAST INTO
THE PLAINS. AS IT DOES SO, IT IS EXPECTED TO BROADEN AND WEAKEN THE
WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY CALM NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHTER AND CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE 50S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY, OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
STARTING AROUND WEDNESDAY, OUR FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO
MAINLY ZONAL AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH. BY
SATURDAY, AS THE RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EASTERN CONUS, OUR FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). SUNDAY IS WHERE GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION, BUT GUIDANCE PRESENTS MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY. WITH THIS BEING ROUGHLY SEVEN DAYS OUT, IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK.
OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 70S AND 80S. TUESDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE CANADIAN-NH AND GFS, SHOW A BOUNDARY OR FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES SHOULD "COOL" DOWN TO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BEFORE SATURDAYS HIGHS BRIEFLY WARM BACK TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN UNDER 5% THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF ANY SHORTWAVES THAT PASS THROUGH, POPS COULD POTENTIALLY
INCREASE.
AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
DURING THIS PERIOD, TUESDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY DAY TO MONITOR.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP AROUND 20-25% FOR
AREAS WEST OF KS HWY 27, WITH WINDS OF 5-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25-
30 MPH. ON TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS SHOULD START OUT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING CLOCKWISE TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS DOES NOT REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL BOUNDARY/FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOWER RH VALUES. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD, RH VALUES MOSTLY STAY ABOVE 25%, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-
15 MPH AND GUSTS IN THE 15-15 MPH RANGE. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
BREEZIER AFTERNOONS WITH GUSTS REACHING 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
FOR KGLD AND KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF PERIOD
ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES. FOR BOTH TERMINALS EXPECT WINDS TO BE FROM
THE NORTH TO START THE PERIOD AND BE AROUND 05-10 KTS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT CLOCKWISE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. AROUND 18Z EXPECT
WINDS TO BE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND BE AROUND 05-10 KTS WITH
THE OCCASIONAL GUST AROUND 15-20 KTS.
AROUND 3Z-4Z THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR, DUE TO AN 850 MB JET. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR WHERE
THE JET WILL EITHER SET UP AS IT MAY SET UP TO THE WEST OF
THE TERMINALS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...HOLDREN
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