144
FXUS63 KGLD 041811
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1211 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND 80S.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1201 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH
SITTING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE JET STREAM
WELL NORTH OF THE CWA, KEEPING US SHELTERED FROM ANY CRAZY WEATHER.
TODAY WILL BE A FAIRLY COOL DAY AS SOME EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
KEEPS US LARGELY IN THE 70S. THIS FLOW IS DUE TO A BROAD, LOW LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE PLAINS. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 50S, WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS THE CWA
POTENTIALLY DIPPING INTO THE 40S AGAIN.
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WE WILL SEE A LOW LEVEL LOW DESCEND OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, LEADING TO AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
LLJ. THIS WILL GIVE US SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TOMORROW. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 15-20 KTS
RANGE, MOST GUSTS IN THE 25-35 KTS RANGE, BUT THERE IS A 30% CHANCE
WE SEE SOME ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 40-45 KTS IN THE CENTRAL CWA JUST
AFTER NOON. HIGHS COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S NEAR AND NORTHWEST
OF THE TRI-STATE BORDER, BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO
80 DEGREES.
WITH THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS, THERE IS A LOW, BUT INCREASED RISK OF
BLOWING DUST AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE THREATS ARE LOW BECAUSE
WHERE WE EXPECT TO SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS (CENTRAL CWA/NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS), LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RH VALUES ARE NOT VERY
SUPPORTIVE. AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WRAY TO
FLAGLER, CO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RH
VALUES IN THE TEENS, BUT GUSTS LOOK TO TOP OUT UNDER 30 KTS. IF DUST
IS ABLE TO BECOME LOFTED, THERE IS LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE IT REDUCES
VISIBILITY TO UNDER 1 MILE AND WOULD INSTEAD BE AN AIR QUALITY ISSUE.
THE WINDS, AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE THREATS, ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN AS
THE SUN GOES DOWN. WE DON'T EXPECT TO FULLY DECOUPLE FROM THE LLJ AS
THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE TO SUPPORT
OVERNIGHT GUSTS AROUND 15-20 KTS. IF WE DO NOT DECOUPLE, AND STAY
MILDLY BREEZY OVERNIGHT, LOWS WOULD STAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S,
MAYBE EVEN LOW 60S. IF WE DECOUPLE AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT, WE CAN
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE LOW 50S, FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
SUNDAY NIGHT'S TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY, AROUND 9-12Z, WE CAN EXPECT THE LOW COMING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO SEND A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTIONS, AND
POTENTIALLY A BRIEF INCREASE IN GUSTS. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE THAT THE
FRONT FIRES OFF SOME WEAK SHOWERS, BUT A LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
KEEPS THE CHANCES LOW.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SYNOPTICALLY, FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY, OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
STARTING AROUND WEDNESDAY, OUR FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO
MAINLY ZONAL AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH. BY
SATURDAY, AS THE RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EASTERN CONUS, OUR FLOW
WILL TRANSITION TO COME FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). SUNDAY IS WHERE GUIDANCE
BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE MAJORITY OF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION, BUT GUIDANCE PRESENTS MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE
STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY. WITH THIS BEING ROUGHLY SEVEN DAYS OUT, IT
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK.
OVERALL, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE 70S AND 80S. TUESDAY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING THE CANADIAN-NH AND GFS, SHOW A BOUNDARY OR FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, TEMPERATURES SHOULD "COOL" DOWN TO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BEFORE SATURDAYS HIGHS BRIEFLY WARM BACK TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN UNDER 5% THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF ANY SHORTWAVES THAT PASS THROUGH, POPS COULD POTENTIALLY
INCREASE.
AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
DURING THIS PERIOD, TUESDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY DAY TO MONITOR.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP AROUND 20-25% FOR
AREAS WEST OF KS HWY 27, WITH WINDS OF 5-15 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25-
30 MPH. ON TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS SHOULD START OUT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BEFORE SHIFTING CLOCKWISE TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE THIS DOES NOT REACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, IT IS SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON ESPECIALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL BOUNDARY/FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOWER RH VALUES. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD, RH VALUES MOSTLY STAY ABOVE 25%, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-
15 MPH AND GUSTS IN THE 15-15 MPH RANGE. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
BREEZIER AFTERNOONS WITH GUSTS REACHING 30-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1014 AM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR KGLD AND
KMCK. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
IN THE 5-17 KTS RANGE ARE EXPECTED. AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY,
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AND BY NOON WILL BE
GUSTING AROUND 30 KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...HOLDREN
AVIATION...CA
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