903
FXUS63 KGLD 190523
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1123 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..BENIGN WEATHER AND NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS..
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
ROCKIES AND ADJOINING HIGH PLAINS AS AN AMPLIFYING EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH (~700 MILES WEST OF VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON) EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY/GRADUALLY
AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.. AND THAT A MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DIURNALLY WAXING/WANING LEE TROUGH
(OR BAGGY LEE CYCLONE) IN COLORADO.
BENIGN WEATHER AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MODULATED BY SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING THE PRECISE
LOCATION/ORIENTATION OF THE LEE TROUGH AND BOUTS OF UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER ASSOC/W EPISODIC SHORTWAVES IN SW FLOW ALOFT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY, THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO BE UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT AMPLIFIES TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES, A TROUGH SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST PUTTING US INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WITH THIS SETUP, WE WOULD LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL, STARTING IN THE 70S AND BUILDING INTO THE 80S ON
FRIDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP FROM 5-10 MPH TO OVER 20
MPH FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AS MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO
ELONGATED ZONAL FLOW AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN, THIS SHOULD BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA CREATING A CHANCES OF SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND ENDING SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN THE
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR AS FORECAST GUIDANCE STARTS TO SHOW GROWING
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF THE TROUGH SYSTEM. IF THE TROUGH SPEEDS
UP, THIS WOULD LEAD THE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND COULD SHOWERS TO OCCUR ALL THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. IF THE
TROUGH SLOWS DOWN, WE COULD EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PASS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHING THE TIMING OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AND ENDING MIDDAY SUNDAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK IN THE 70S WITH A
FEW LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, THOUGH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE THE WIND DIRECTION
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/MOELLER
AVIATION...DAVIS
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