606
FXUS63 KGLD 190614
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1214 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY OCCUR WITH EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW (LESS THAN 20% CHANCE) THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN STORY WILL
BE WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE, WITH UPPER 70S
EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH
WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS IN COLORADO.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS
WITH INCREASING DEW POINTS AND SATURATED CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH FRIDAY, THE AREA IS EXPECTED
TO BE UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT AMPLIFIES TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES, A TROUGH SYSTEM TO THE
SOUTHWEST BEGINS TO MOVE EAST PUTTING US INTO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WITH THIS SETUP, WE WOULD LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL, STARTING IN THE 70S AND BUILDING INTO THE 80S ON
FRIDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP FROM 5-10 MPH TO OVER 20
MPH FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,
CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA AS MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO
ELONGATED ZONAL FLOW AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN, THIS SHOULD BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA CREATING A CHANCES OF SHOWERS
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING AND ENDING SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN THE
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR AS FORECAST GUIDANCE STARTS TO SHOW GROWING
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF THE TROUGH SYSTEM. IF THE TROUGH SPEEDS
UP, THIS WOULD LEAD THE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND COULD SHOWERS TO OCCUR ALL THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. IF THE
TROUGH SLOWS DOWN, WE COULD EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PASS
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSHING THE TIMING OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AND ENDING MIDDAY SUNDAY. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK IN THE 70S WITH A
FEW LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, THOUGH A SURFACE BOUNDARY
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WILL MAKE THE WIND DIRECTION
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/MOELLER
AVIATION...DAVIS
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