121
FXUS63 KGLD 191739
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1139 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER MAY OCCUR WITH EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW (LESS THAN 20% CHANCE) THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN STORY WILL
BE WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE, WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH WILL
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH DEEPENS IN COLORADO. SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS WITH
INCREASING DEW POINTS AND SATURATED CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE AREA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE UNDER
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN THAT AMPLIFIES TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHEAST, A
BROAD TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BEGINS MOVING TO THE EAST
THAT WOULD PUT US INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THIS BEING
SAID, TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE STAYING IN
THE 70S. SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERNIGHT AS MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES OVER. WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO
PICK UP FROM 5-10 MPH FROM THURSDAY TO 20-25 MPH FRIDAY FROM
THE SOUTH.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES INTO ZONAL
FLOW ONCE AS THE TROUGH SYSTEM STEADILY PASSES OVER THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING CREATING
SLIGHT CHANCES (30%) FOR SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH SYSTEM AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUING SPREAD WHEN IT WILL PASS
OVER. IF THE TROUGH SPEEDS UP, IT WOULD ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF THE THE
TROUGH SLOWS DOWN, THIS WOULD THEN PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO COME
IN MIDDAY SATURDAY ALLOWING SHOWERS TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME CLOUDS
LINGERING AROUND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUD
COVER CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE ~10,000 FT AGL. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SE OR S AND INCREASE TO 12-15
KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE (~15Z TUE), NEAR THE END OF THE
18Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: ASIDE FROM A VERY LOW PROBABILITY (~10%) FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR FOG (OR STRATUS) AROUND SUNRISE TUE MORNING,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUD COVER
CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE ~10,000 FT AGL. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SE OR S AND MODESTLY INCREASE TO
10-13 KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE (~15Z TUE), NEAR THE END
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/MOELLER
AVIATION...VINCENT
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