905
FXUS63 KGLD 192108
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
308 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TUESDAY MORNING.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
..BENIGN WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK..
OVERVIEW: SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ADJOINING HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MID-WEEK, AS A
VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST STALLS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL-NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STEADILY AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN
THE LOWER LEVELS, A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE TX GULF COAST
WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
VIA MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DIURNALLY WAXING/WANING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES. EXPECT A MODEST DAY-TO-DAY WARMING
TREND BENEATH THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE.
TUESDAY: SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON [REFERENCE
400-250 MB POT VORT AND 700-400 MB DVA PRODUCTS ON 19Z SPC
MESOANALYSIS] WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TONIGHT AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY
EXTENSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER, VIRGA AND PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES. EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60'S TO LOWER-MID
70'S, COOLEST IN NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.. WHERE CLOUD
COVER IS MORE LIKELY TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: IN THIS PERIOD, EPISODIC SHORTWAVES WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, DESERT SOUTHWEST AND 4-CORNERS,
WHERE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SSW OR S AS THE CUT-OFF LOW IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC MEANDERS EAST TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL FOSTER WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 70'S.
FOG: WHILE PREVIOUS RUNS OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATED
A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG AN HOUR OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE
OF SUNRISE ON BOTH TUE-WED.. MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
ADJACENT KANSAS BORDER COUNTIES.. CURRENT/RECENT RUNS SUGGEST
THAT PATCHY DENSE FOG, IF PRESENT, WOULD LARGELY (IF NOT
ENTIRELY) BE CONFINED NORTH OF THE GOODLAND CWA.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE AREA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE UNDER
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN THAT AMPLIFIES TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHEAST, A
BROAD TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BEGINS MOVING TO THE EAST
THAT WOULD PUT US INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THIS BEING
SAID, TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE STAYING IN
THE 70S. SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERNIGHT AS MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES OVER. WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO
PICK UP FROM 5-10 MPH FROM THURSDAY TO 20-25 MPH FRIDAY FROM
THE SOUTH.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES INTO ZONAL
FLOW ONCE AS THE TROUGH SYSTEM STEADILY PASSES OVER THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING CREATING
SLIGHT CHANCES (30%) FOR SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH SYSTEM AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUING SPREAD WHEN IT WILL PASS
OVER. IF THE TROUGH SPEEDS UP, IT WOULD ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF THE THE
TROUGH SLOWS DOWN, THIS WOULD THEN PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO COME
IN MIDDAY SATURDAY ALLOWING SHOWERS TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME CLOUDS
LINGERING AROUND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUD
COVER CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE ~10,000 FT AGL. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SE OR S AND INCREASE TO 12-15
KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE (~15Z TUE), NEAR THE END OF THE
18Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: ASIDE FROM A VERY LOW PROBABILITY (~10%) FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SUB-VFR FOG (OR STRATUS) AROUND SUNRISE TUE MORNING,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUD COVER
CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE ~10,000 FT AGL. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SE OR S AND MODESTLY INCREASE TO
10-13 KNOTS A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE (~15Z TUE), NEAR THE END
OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...024/MOELLER
AVIATION...VINCENT
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