863
FXUS63 KGLD 200624
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1224 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH BEST
CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BETWEEN A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVES
MOVING THROUGH ALOFT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH MODELS SUGGESTING IT WILL
PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TOMORROW, BUT INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD, FROM THE LOWER 70S TODAY, MIDDLE 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND
AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 AM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE AREA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE UNDER
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN THAT AMPLIFIES TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. WHILE THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHEAST, A
BROAD TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BEGINS MOVING TO THE EAST
THAT WOULD PUT US INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH THIS BEING
SAID, TEMPERATURES WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE STAYING IN
THE 70S. SOME CLOUD COVERAGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERNIGHT AS MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES OVER. WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO
PICK UP FROM 5-10 MPH FROM THURSDAY TO 20-25 MPH FRIDAY FROM
THE SOUTH.
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES INTO ZONAL
FLOW ONCE AS THE TROUGH SYSTEM STEADILY PASSES OVER THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT EARLY SATURDAY MORNING CREATING
SLIGHT CHANCES (30%) FOR SHOWERS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS, THERE IS SOME
TIMING UNCERTAINTY WITH THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH SYSTEM AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUING SPREAD WHEN IT WILL PASS
OVER. IF THE TROUGH SPEEDS UP, IT WOULD ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF THE THE
TROUGH SLOWS DOWN, THIS WOULD THEN PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO COME
IN MIDDAY SATURDAY ALLOWING SHOWERS TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME CLOUDS
LINGERING AROUND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS, AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO AT KGLD. HOWEVER, FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT AROUND 10Z, AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 40S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, AND SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LACK OF
CLOUD COVER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FOR KMCK,
THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IFR VISIBILITIES CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP A BIT INTO
THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH LIGHT WINDS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SOUTH ARE EXPECTED OTHERWISE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/MOELLER
AVIATION...DAVIS
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