831
FXUS63 KGLD 200835
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH BEST
CHANCES IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BETWEEN A RIDGE
CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WAVES
MOVING THROUGH ALOFT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH MODELS SUGGESTING IT WILL
PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TOMORROW, BUT INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD, FROM THE LOWER 70S TODAY, MIDDLE 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND
AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ON FRIDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS THE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. TOWARDS
THE SURFACE, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE IN BETWEEN A LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF TO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN PIEDMONT REGION AND A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER WINDS
FAVORED OVER THE US 385 CORRIDOR. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OVER 40 MPH FROM THE
SOUTH. WITH THIS BEING SAID, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS CLOUD COVERAGE STARTS TO
DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE
ARE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR AS CAPE IS THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR WITH
VALUES ABOVE 500 J/KG. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS IS MEDIUM TO
HIGH (55-75%), CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW (25%). IF
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT IS FAVORED TO OCCUR EAST OF K-25.ON
SUNDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY COULD OCCUR AS A
POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA AND DRAW IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (25-40%) THAT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE BECOMES INCONSISTENT OVER THE AREA. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN INTO
SEASONAL AVERAGES BEING IN THE 60S
MONDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES UNCLEAR AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE PRESENTS A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE FIRST
SCENARIO IS CONTINUING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS THAT
MAY KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THE SECOND SCENARIO
IS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COULD FORM TO THE WEST AND BRING
IN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, LOWERING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 50S. OTHERWISE, IT IS LIKELY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CALM
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH TERMINALS, AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO AT KGLD. HOWEVER, FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT AROUND 10Z, AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 40S THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, AND SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LACK OF
CLOUD COVER. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FOR KMCK,
THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IFR VISIBILITIES CAN'T BE RULED
OUT. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP A BIT INTO
THE TEENS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH LIGHT WINDS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SOUTH ARE EXPECTED OTHERWISE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/MOELLER
AVIATION...DAVIS
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