820
FXUS63 KGLD 201815
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1215 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, BETWEEN A
RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH A FEW ISOLATED VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA WILL BE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
WAVES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH MODELS SUGGESTING IT WILL
PRIMARILY BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. WIND WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND
TOMORROW, BUT INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
PERIOD, FROM THE LOWER 70S TODAY, MIDDLE 70S ON WEDNESDAY AND
AROUND 80 ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ON FRIDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE IN BETWEEN A
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN PIEDMONT
REGION AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
HIGHER WINDS FAVORED OVER THE US 385 CORRIDOR. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OVER 40
MPH FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THIS BEING SAID, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS
CLOUD COVERAGE STARTS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE
ARE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR AS CAPE IS THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR WITH
VALUES ABOVE 500 J/KG. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS IS MEDIUM
TO HIGH (55-75%), CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW (25%). IF
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT IS FAVORED TO OCCUR EAST OF K-25.ON
SUNDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY COULD OCCUR AS A
POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA AND DRAW IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (25-40%) THAT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE BECOMES INCONSISTENT OVER THE AREA. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN INTO
SEASONAL AVERAGES BEING IN THE 60S
MONDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES UNCLEAR AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE PRESENTS A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE FIRST
SCENARIO IS CONTINUING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS THAT
MAY KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THE SECOND SCENARIO
IS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COULD FORM TO THE WEST AND BRING IN
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, LOWERING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 50S. OTHERWISE, IT IS LIKELY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CALM
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLOUD
COVER CONFINED TO CIRRUS ABOVE ~10,000 FT AGL. SSE OR S WINDS
AT ~10 KNOTS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH 15-17 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING, AS A
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IN CO EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST KS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, COULD DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE
MCCOOK TERMINAL AN HOUR OR TWO ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE WED
MORNING. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHILE CLOUD COVER
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED ABOVE ~10 KFT AGL, CEILINGS AS LOW AS
5-8 KFT AGL ARE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LIGHT SHOWERS (VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES) THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT (5-10 KNOT) SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO ~15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/MOELLER
AVIATION...VINCENT
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