451
FXUS63 KGLD 210549
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1149 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
OVERVIEW (TODAY-THURSDAY): SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ADJOINING HIGH PLAINS WILL BACK TO THE SSW AND
STRENGTHEN AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STEADILY AMPLIFIES OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A CUT-OFF LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
SLOWLY MOVES ASHORE CALIFORNIA AND PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, MOISTURE FROM THE TX
GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS VIA PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DIURNALLY WAXING/WANING SURFACE TROUGH
IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
THROUGH TONIGHT: MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING E-ENE FROM CO INTO WESTERN KS (REFERENCE 700-400 MB
DVA ON SPC MESOANALYSIS) WILL DIMINISH/ABATE FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES E-ESE
INTO CENTRAL-SOUTHERN KS. LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS AND
DECREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER COULD ASSIST IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG A FEW HOURS ON EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE
WED. SURFACE VISIBILITY FORECASTS VIA THE MOST RECENT (19Z) RUN
OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS A SCENARIO SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, I.E.
RELATIVE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
WED-WED NIGHT: EPISODIC SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE CONFINED WEST
OF THE GOODLAND CWA (TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND 4-CORNERS) IN THIS PERIOD, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPPER 70'S AND OVERNIGHT (THU MORNING) LOWS IN THE UPPER
40'S TO LOWER 50'S.
THURSDAY: SIMILAR TO WED, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70'S TO LOWER 80'S) AND BECOMING BREEZY, WITH SOUTH WINDS
AT 15-25 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN EARNEST THU
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A MORE
PRONOUNCED 850 MB TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
FOSTER WARMER OVERNIGHT (FRI MORNING) LOWS IN THE MID 50'S TO
LOWER 60'S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ON FRIDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE IN BETWEEN A
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN PIEDMONT
REGION AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
HIGHER WINDS FAVORED OVER THE US 385 CORRIDOR. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OVER 40
MPH FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THIS BEING SAID, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS
CLOUD COVERAGE STARTS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE
ARE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR AS CAPE IS THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR WITH
VALUES ABOVE 500 J/KG. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS IS MEDIUM
TO HIGH (55-75%), CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW (25%). IF
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT IS FAVORED TO OCCUR EAST OF K-25.ON
SUNDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY COULD OCCUR AS A
POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA AND DRAW IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (25-40%) THAT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE BECOMES INCONSISTENT OVER THE AREA. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN INTO
SEASONAL AVERAGES BEING IN THE 60S
MONDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES UNCLEAR AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE PRESENTS A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE FIRST
SCENARIO IS CONTINUING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS THAT
MAY KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THE SECOND SCENARIO
IS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COULD FORM TO THE WEST AND BRING IN
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, LOWERING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 50S. OTHERWISE, IT IS LIKELY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CALM
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HOWEVER, THE SAME
CANNOT BE SAID FOR KMCK, AS FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT STARTING AROUND 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD COVER NEARLY ERODED OVER KMCK, IN ADDITION
TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST STARTING AROUND 10Z, AS GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED THAT FOG WILL BE DENSE WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW A
QUARTER MILE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 16Z FOR
KMCK, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/MOELLER
AVIATION...DAVIS
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