281
FXUS63 KGLD 210601
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1201 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
- BREEZY TO WINDY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD, BETWEEN A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN SLIM TO NONE, THOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
ISOLATED SHOWER AS HAS OCCURRED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST, BUT
TIMING IS SUSPECT AND IT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY
MORE WIDESPREAD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
MIXED AND CAN BRING DOWN THE STRONGER GUSTS OF THE STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET. NBM MEANS SHOW GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ON THURSDAY
AND 40-60 MPH ON FRIDAY, HIGHEST IN COLORADO WHERE PROBABILITIES
OF MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA (58 MPH) ARE CURRENTLY AROUND
30% BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE ON
FRIDAY MAY SEE SOME BLOWING DUST AS WELL WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
FAVORABLE AT AROUND 5.5 KFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ON FRIDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS
THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.
TOWARDS THE SURFACE, THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE IN BETWEEN A
LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF TO THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN PIEDMONT
REGION AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA WITH
HIGHER WINDS FAVORED OVER THE US 385 CORRIDOR. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS OVER 40
MPH FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THIS BEING SAID, AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS
CLOUD COVERAGE STARTS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE DAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL START TO SLOWLY
SHIFT INTO ZONAL FLOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE
ARE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE WEATHER, A POSSIBLE WEAK
THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR AS CAPE IS THE MAIN DRIVING FACTOR WITH
VALUES ABOVE 500 J/KG. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS IS MEDIUM
TO HIGH (55-75%), CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW (25%). IF
PRECIPITATION OCCURS, IT IS FAVORED TO OCCUR EAST OF K-25.ON
SUNDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS FROM SATURDAY COULD OCCUR AS A
POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW-PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA AND DRAW IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THERE IS LOW TO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (25-40%) THAT SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE BECOMES INCONSISTENT OVER THE AREA. ONCE THE COLD FRONT
PASSES, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE BACK DOWN INTO
SEASONAL AVERAGES BEING IN THE 60S
MONDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES UNCLEAR AS FORECAST
GUIDANCE PRESENTS A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE FIRST
SCENARIO IS CONTINUING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS THAT
MAY KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THE SECOND SCENARIO
IS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COULD FORM TO THE WEST AND BRING IN
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT, LOWERING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 50S. OTHERWISE, IT IS LIKELY TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CALM
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HOWEVER, THE SAME
CANNOT BE SAID FOR KMCK, AS FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TONIGHT STARTING AROUND 09Z. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUD COVER NEARLY ERODED OVER KMCK, IN ADDITION
TO DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S TONIGHT. LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST STARTING AROUND 10Z, AS GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED THAT FOG WILL BE DENSE WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW A
QUARTER MILE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND 16Z FOR
KMCK, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/MOELLER
AVIATION...DAVIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page