055
FXUS63 KGLD 211117
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
517 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
- BREEZY TO WINDY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD, BETWEEN A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN SLIM TO NONE, THOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
ISOLATED SHOWER AS HAS OCCURRED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST, BUT
TIMING IS SUSPECT AND IT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY
MORE WIDESPREAD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
MIXED AND CAN BRING DOWN THE STRONGER GUSTS OF THE STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET. NBM MEANS SHOW GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ON THURSDAY
AND 40-60 MPH ON FRIDAY, HIGHEST IN COLORADO WHERE PROBABILITIES
OF MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA (58 MPH) ARE CURRENTLY AROUND
30% BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE ON
FRIDAY MAY SEE SOME BLOWING DUST AS WELL WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
FAVORABLE AT AROUND 5.5 KFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TOWARD
THE SURFACE, LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS RETURN FLOW FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA MIDDAY SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR PROLONGED SHOWERS SUNDAY.
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN, WEAK AND LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AS CAPE IS STILL THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE WITH VALUES
BEING ABOVE 300 J/KG. IF SHOWERS DOES OCCUR, IT IS LIKELY
FAVORED TO THE EAST AND OVER THE K-25 CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY AND
SOUTH OF I-70 ON SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS ON BOTH
DAYS REMAIN HIGH (75%), THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (20-25%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR BEFORE TURNING INTO SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO SEASONAL RANGES
BEING IN THE 60S AND 50S.
STARTING NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA MIDDAY MONDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THE
PATTERN BECOMES UNCLEAR AS GUIDANCE SPREAD STARTS TO SHOW TWO
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF WHAT COULD HAPPEN. THE FIRST SCENARIO
COULD BE THAT ZONAL FLOW STARTS TO FORM OVER THE AREA KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE SECONDARY SCENARIO IS A SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE NORTH THAT COULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
AND POTENTIALLY DROP TEMPERATURES FURTHER AND INTO THE 40S.
HOWEVER,WITH THE UNCLEAR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN, OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY ARE STILL SLIGHTLY POSSIBLE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES FOR EACH
DAY BEING IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT KMCK THROUGH ABOUT 16Z THIS MORNING BEFORE
BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVERNIGHT, LOW CLOUDS
AND AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN, WITH
CORRESPONDING FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/MOELLER
AVIATION...024
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