292
FXUS63 KGLD 211834
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1234 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING.
- BREEZY TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD, BETWEEN A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN SLIM TO NONE, THOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY
ISOLATED SHOWER AS HAS OCCURRED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THERE MAY BE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST, BUT
TIMING IS SUSPECT AND IT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY
MORE WIDESPREAD AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT ASSUMING THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
MIXED AND CAN BRING DOWN THE STRONGER GUSTS OF THE STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET. NBM MEANS SHOW GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ON THURSDAY
AND 40-60 MPH ON FRIDAY, HIGHEST IN COLORADO WHERE PROBABILITIES
OF MEETING HIGH WIND CRITERIA (58 MPH) ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 30%
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE ON
FRIDAY MAY SEE SOME BLOWING DUST AS WELL WITH MIXING HEIGHTS
FAVORABLE AT AROUND 5.5 KFT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE
RIDGE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TOWARD
THE SURFACE, LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS RETURN FLOW FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA MIDDAY SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR PROLONGED SHOWERS SUNDAY.
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN, WEAK AND LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS CAPE IS STILL THE MAIN DRIVING
FORCE WITH VALUES BEING ABOVE 300 J/KG. IF SHOWERS DOES OCCUR,
IT IS LIKELY FAVORED TO THE EAST AND OVER THE K-25 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY AND SOUTH OF I-70 ON SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR
SHOWERS ON BOTH DAYS REMAIN HIGH (75%), THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
(20-25%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR BEFORE TURNING INTO SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO SEASONAL
RANGES BEING IN THE 60S AND 50S.
STARTING NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA MIDDAY MONDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THE
PATTERN BECOMES UNCLEAR AS GUIDANCE SPREAD STARTS TO SHOW TWO
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF WHAT COULD HAPPEN. THE FIRST SCENARIO
COULD BE THAT ZONAL FLOW STARTS TO FORM OVER THE AREA KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE SECONDARY SCENARIO IS A SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE NORTH THAT COULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
AND POTENTIALLY DROP TEMPERATURES FURTHER AND INTO THE 40S.
HOWEVER,WITH THE UNCLEAR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN, OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY ARE STILL SLIGHTLY POSSIBLE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES FOR EACH
DAY BEING IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO CIRRUS AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FT AGL. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY (SSE OR S) AND INCREASE TO 12-15
KNOTS LATE THU MORNING, NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
MCK: PERSISTENCE SUGGESTS THAT DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT THE MCCOOK
TERMINAL THU MORNING, SIMILAR TO TODAY AND YESTERDAY, MAINLY IN
THE ~10-15Z TIME FRAME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL,
WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FT AGL. LIGHT (5-10 KNOT) AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY (SSE OR S) AND INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS LATE THU MORNING, NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024/MOELLER
AVIATION...VINCENT
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