914
FXUS63 KGLD 220535
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1135 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING.
- BREEZY TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 358 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
OVERVIEW: SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJOINING
HIGH PLAINS WILL BACK TO THE SSW AND STRENGTHEN AS A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STEADILY AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST SLOWLY PROGRESSES E-ENE
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. IN THE LOWER LEVELS, RICH MOISTURE
FROM THE TX GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS VIA PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DIURNALLY WAXING/WANING SURFACE
TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
TONIGHT-THU MORNING: EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT
(THU MORNING) LOWS IN THE UPPER 40'S TO LOWER 50'S. CURRENT AND
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT DENSE FOG MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA THU MORNING, MAINLY IN
NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BETWEEN ~10-15Z (4-9 AM
MDT), AND THAT DEVELOPMENT COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS MORNINGS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG COVERAGE.
THURSDAY: SIMILAR TO TODAY, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER (HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70'S TO LOWER 80'S) AND BECOMING BREEZY WITH SOUTH
WINDS AT 15-25 MPH.
THU NIGHT: SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION THU
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
PROGRESSES EAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A MORE
PRONOUNCED 850 MB TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.
WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER,
EXPECT WARMER OVERNIGHT (FRI MORNING) LOWS IN THE MID 50'S TO
LOWER 60'S.
FRIDAY: EXPECT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70'S TO MID 80'S,
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. AN ABSENCE OF FORCING IN THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE GOODLAND CWA, DESPITE AN
ATYPICALLY MOIST AIRMASS. FURTHER TIGHTENING OF THE MSLP TO 850
MB HEIGHT GRADIENT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING LEE
CYCLONE IN CO WILL LEAD TO BREEZY/STRONG SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. 18Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ~30-40
KNOT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESIDE WITHIN AND THROUGHOUT A
RELATIVELY SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER (SURFACE TO 3-6 KFT AGL),
SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS ~25-40 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO ~50 MPH,
THOUGH.. THICK UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER EMANATING FROM
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES COULD ADVERSELY AFFECT
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA, LEADING TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES, SHALLOWER MIXING AND RELATIVELY WEAKER
WINDS.
DUST: BREEZY TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND RECENT DRY CONDITIONS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST, PRODUCING HAZE AND BRIEF,
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY IN THE USUAL/TYPICALLY PRONE
AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER: BREEZY/STRONG S-SSW WINDS WILL INHERENTLY LEAD TO
AN INCREASED RISK FOR ADVERSE FIRE BEHAVIOR. MITIGATING FACTORS
INCLUDE A CONTINUED NORTHWARD INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MINIMUM RH READINGS
~30-45% IN KS-NE AND 25-35% IN EASTERN CO (AT WORST, 20-25% IN
FAR WESTERN YUMA/KIT CARSON COUNTIES) AND THICK UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER EMANATING FROM SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM
PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, WHICH MAY IMPACT DIURNAL
HEATING/MIXING, LEADING TO COOLER TEMPS, HIGHER HUMIDITY AND
RELATIVELY WEAKER WINDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TOWARD
THE SURFACE, LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS RETURN FLOW FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA MIDDAY SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR PROLONGED SHOWERS SUNDAY.
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN, WEAK AND LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS CAPE IS STILL THE MAIN DRIVING
FORCE WITH VALUES BEING ABOVE 300 J/KG. IF SHOWERS DOES OCCUR,
IT IS LIKELY FAVORED TO THE EAST AND OVER THE K-25 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY AND SOUTH OF I-70 ON SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR
SHOWERS ON BOTH DAYS REMAIN HIGH (75%), THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
(20-25%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR BEFORE TURNING INTO SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO SEASONAL
RANGES BEING IN THE 60S AND 50S.
STARTING NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA MIDDAY MONDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THE
PATTERN BECOMES UNCLEAR AS GUIDANCE SPREAD STARTS TO SHOW TWO
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF WHAT COULD HAPPEN. THE FIRST SCENARIO
COULD BE THAT ZONAL FLOW STARTS TO FORM OVER THE AREA KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE SECONDARY SCENARIO IS A SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE NORTH THAT COULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
AND POTENTIALLY DROP TEMPERATURES FURTHER AND INTO THE 40S.
HOWEVER,WITH THE UNCLEAR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN, OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY ARE STILL SLIGHTLY POSSIBLE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES FOR EACH
DAY BEING IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER,
PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KMCK IN THE HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE, AS DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID 50S MOST OF THE DAY
AND CLOUD COVER IS ABSENT AT THE TERMINAL. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
ON LIFR CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED A BIT WARMER TODAY
THAN EXPECTED, THOUGH THE DENSEST FOG WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BETWEEN THE LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS OCT. 22ND, REMAINING PRIMARILY OUT
OF THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, A LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SOME WIND SHEAR AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...024/MOELLER
AVIATION...DAVIS
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