294
FXUS63 KGLD 220653
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1253 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
- DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THURSDAY MORNING.
- BREEZY TO STRONG SOUTH WINDS MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
PATCHY, AND OCCASIONALLY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83. DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE FALLEN TO OR
BELOW 3 F ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
KANSAS. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VISIBILITIES AROUND 4
MILES CAN BE EXPECTED, THOUGH LOCALIZED PATCHES NEAR A QUARTER MILE
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BETWEEN 15 AND 16Z (10
AND 11 AM CT) AS SOLAR HEATING BEGINS TO BECOME DOMINANT.
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD AT 500-MB, WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A 60-70 KT JET STREAK WILL BE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS UPPER LOW, CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEVADA AND UTAH. AS SUCH, SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, THOUGH ELEVATED CIRRUS MAY
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING A LITTLE BIT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE
HIGHEST TEMPERATURES FOCUSED ALONG THE KANSAS HIGHWAY 27 AND U.S.
HIGHWAY 385 CORRIDORS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, AS THE SURFACE LOW TO
THE WEST AND A SURFACE HIGH IN THE MIDWEST STRENGTHEN. WINDS ARE
LIKELY TO SUSTAIN IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE BASED ON HREF GUIDANCE,
WITH MOST OF THE AREA OVER A 40% CHANCE OF SEEING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GFS AND RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS, WHICH SHOW AROUND
25-30 MPH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE LOW-LEVEL MIXED LAYER, AND COULD
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED AT THE BASE
OF THE LARGER LOW BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THE JET
STREAK AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW THURSDAY EVENING. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IN NEVADA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, DEEPENING WITH TIME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW ABNORMALLY STRONG THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WITH MOST
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 AT A 75% CHANCE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS OVER 15 MPH ACCORDING TO NBM GUIDANCE. ALONGSIDE CLOUD COVER,
THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S, WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 60S AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY, AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN FOG OVER THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WILL LIKELY CATCH A
BREAK DUE TO THESE HIGHER TEMPERATURES.
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY WITH THE HELP OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE OF WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20-30 MPH, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SEEM
LIKELY, WITH PERHAPS SOME MID TO UPPER 80S PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. BLOWING DUST
MAY BE A CONCERN WITH THESE STRONG WINDS. NBM MIXING HEIGHTS ARE
HIGHER (4-6000 FT) ALONG AND WEST OF KANSAS HIGHWAY 27, WHILE THEY
ARE LOWER (2-3000 FT) ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83. THE HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WEST WOULD CREATE MORE HAZY, LOW AIR
QUALITY CONDITIONS, AS DUST MIXES THROUGH A HIGHER DEPTH. HOWEVER,
THERE IS ABOUT 10-20% CONFIDENCE THAT VISIBILITIES DROP TO AROUND 1-
3 MILES IN DUST PLUMES TO THE EAST.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOT FORECAST TO BEGIN TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT MDT SATURDAY, AS SHOWN BY LREF STANDARD
DEVIATION GUIDANCE. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA
ALONG THE FRONT. SPECIFICALLY, NBM SUGGESTS THAT AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83 HAVE A 70% CHANCE OR HIGHER OF RECEIVING
GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF RAIN SATURDAY. THIS WILL COME WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE UPPER LOW STALLS OUT OVER THE
4-CORNERS REGION. THERE IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE (5%), EXTREME SCENARIO
WHERE GREATER THAN 3 INCHES OF RAIN FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL KANSAS AND EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO. EFI (EC EXTREME FORECAST
INDEX) VALUES FOR QPF ARE BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.8, WITH SHIFT OF TAILS
(THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE FORECAST GOES BEYOND THE 2005-2026 OBSERVED
CLIMATE MAXIMUM PERCENTILE) NEAR 1. IF THIS SCENARIO CAN OCCUR, A
FLASH FLOODING RISK WOULD BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY EXTEND
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST FROM
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. TOWARD
THE SURFACE, LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS RETURN FLOW FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA MIDDAY SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR PROLONGED SHOWERS SUNDAY.
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN, WEAK AND LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS CAPE IS STILL THE MAIN DRIVING
FORCE WITH VALUES BEING ABOVE 300 J/KG. IF SHOWERS DOES OCCUR,
IT IS LIKELY FAVORED TO THE EAST AND OVER THE K-25 CORRIDOR ON
SATURDAY AND SOUTH OF I-70 ON SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR
SHOWERS ON BOTH DAYS REMAIN HIGH (75%), THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
(20-25%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR BEFORE TURNING INTO SHOWERS
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO SEASONAL
RANGES BEING IN THE 60S AND 50S.
STARTING NEXT WEEK, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA MIDDAY MONDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THE
PATTERN BECOMES UNCLEAR AS GUIDANCE SPREAD STARTS TO SHOW TWO
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF WHAT COULD HAPPEN. THE FIRST SCENARIO
COULD BE THAT ZONAL FLOW STARTS TO FORM OVER THE AREA KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. THE SECONDARY SCENARIO IS A SECONDARY
TROUGH TO THE NORTH THAT COULD PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
AND POTENTIALLY DROP TEMPERATURES FURTHER AND INTO THE 40S.
HOWEVER,WITH THE UNCLEAR CHANGE IN THE PATTERN, OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY ARE STILL SLIGHTLY POSSIBLE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES FOR EACH
DAY BEING IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KGLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER,
PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KMCK IN THE HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE, AS DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID 50S MOST OF THE DAY
AND CLOUD COVER IS ABSENT AT THE TERMINAL. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
ON LIFR CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED A BIT WARMER TODAY
THAN EXPECTED, THOUGH THE DENSEST FOG WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP BETWEEN THE LATE
MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON HOURS OCT. 22ND, REMAINING PRIMARILY OUT
OF THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, A LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SOME WIND SHEAR AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA/DAVIS
LONG TERM...024/MOELLER
AVIATION...DAVIS
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