328
FXUS63 KGLD 230525
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IN COLORADO,
THEN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS ON FRIDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
EXPECTED. PATCHY BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE.
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
SYSTEM IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL COME OUT IN TWO PIECES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FIRST PART WILL GET PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND BE PULLED INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. ON THAT TRACK BEST FORCING WILL STAY WEST OF
THE AREA, BUT THE CAMS DO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER ON FRIDAY
DUE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING WAVE.
INSTABILITY TODAY WILL BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 20 KTS, WHILE ON FRIDAY INSTABILITY
INCREASES SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 750 J/KG AS DOES SHEAR TO 25-30
KTS. NOT REALLY EXPECTING SEVERE STORMS EITHER DAY, BUT MODEL
OUTPUT DOES SUGGEST THAT WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 60 MPH WITH
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FAVORABLE DCAPE
VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG. EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY, GRADIENT WINDS WILL GUST 40-50 MPH WITH THE DEEPENING
LEE TROUGH IN COLORADO. LATEST PROBABILITIES FOR MEETING HIGH
WIND WARNING CRITERIA (58 MPH) FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE AROUND 20%
IN A SMALL AREA OF NORTHEAST COLORADO, SO THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL PROBABLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY MINIMUMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 20% WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.
ON SATURDAY, A SURFACE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE CUT OFF LOW MEANDERING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL ALSO PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. MODELS SHOW A
FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. BY
SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE
AS IT MOVES INTO COLORADO, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AHEAD OF IT IN
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A VERY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM, SO PERIODIC
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. 48-HOUR QPF
MEANS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY SHOW A SWATH OF 2-3" WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM MCCOOK TO GOODLAND AND TRIBUNE, WITH 1-2" ELSEWHERE, WHILE
25TH PERCENTILE TOTALS ARE RUNNING 1-2" IN THE SAME AREA AND
0.50-1" ELSEWHERE, WHICH MAY BE A MORE REALISTIC EXPECTATION.
GIVEN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME OVER WHICH THE RAIN WILL FALL, NOT
EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING AT THIS TIME, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY (LESS THAN 20%) OF AREAL FLOODING BY SUNDAY IF THE
HIGHER END RAIN TOTALS CAN MATERIALIZE.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WILL SEE ONE MORE WARM DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S, THEN TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY INTO THE 60S AND 70S, WITH COOLEST DAY ON SUNDAY
WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AND HIGHS IN THE 50S. MAY SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL WITH THE SATURATED
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
ON SUNDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS STILL
PERSISTENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. DURING
THIS TIME, A HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WILL START
BRINGING IN LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE VORTICITY AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION, THIS COULD LEAD TO LONG LASTING SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA).
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (70%) THAT RAIN TOTALS COULD EXCEED A
TENTH (0.10) OF AN INCH OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
DURING THIS EVENT, NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONSISTENTLY COOL DOWN TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AND THEN COOLING
5 TO 7 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA AND THEN COOL DOWN AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 8 DEGREES
TUESDAY. WITH THIS, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
INTRODUCING A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE
THIS MIX IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM VONA, COLORADO TO SWANSON
LAKE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME UNCERTAIN AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES NORTH OVER THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA STATE LINE.
ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH, A RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA.
WHILE IT IS FAVORED FOR THE RIDGE TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY,
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITHIN GUIDANCE THAT COULD EITHER
SPEED UP OR DELAY THE RIDGE. IF THE RIDGE SPEEDS UP, THIS COULD
LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA SOONER THAN EXPECTED AND
HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE. IF THE RIDGE SLOWS DOWN, WE THEN
COULD SEE SHOWERS MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS, THE RIDGE WILL LEAD INTO A WARMING
TREND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. OVERNIGHT, OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK. ADDITIONALLY, LLWS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 40-45 KTS AROUND 200 FEET AGL IS EXPECTED. THE LLWS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL GUSTS OF 25+ KTS MIX TO THE SURFACE AROUND
SUNRISE. DURING THE DAY, MAXIMUM GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
35-40 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CA/MOELLER
AVIATION...CA
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