943
FXUS63 KGLD 230823
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
223 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN COLORADO. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
- WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
PATCHY BLOWING DUST POSSIBLE, BUT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE
NOT LIKELY
- STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY BRINGS IN PROLONGED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CHANCE OF FLOODING FROM THIS
SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGION GRADUALLY CROSSING OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS LOW WILL BE PUSHING OUT A RIDGE THAT'S CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THESE TWO FEATURES
HAVE CREATED A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, LEADING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD VORTICITY IS ALSO
SEEN ALL AROUND THE INCOMING LOW, WHICH HAS PROMOTED SOME SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM OVERNIGHT.
TODAY, SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE STOUT, BUT NOTHING CRAZY
FOR THE HIGH PLAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KTS WITH MOST GUSTS
IN THE 30-35 KTS RANGE, AND A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 45 KTS BEING
POSSIBLE. DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT
HIGH AS RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20% FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A 50% CHANCE WE'LL SEE SOME HAZY SKIES FROM
BLOWING DUST, WHICH WILL IMPACT AIR QUALITY, BUT THERE IS LESS THAN
10% CONFIDENCE THAT BLOWING DUST REDUCES VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1
MILE. IF IT WERE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY, IT WOULD BE NEAR A SOURCE
REGION, SUCH AS A BURN SCAR OR OPEN FIELD. CONFIDENCE IS THIS LOW
BECAUSE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO LINGER AROUND FOR A
BULK OF THE DAY, PREVENTING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES CLIMBING OVER 9
C/KM.
HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO LARGELY TOP OUT AROUND 80. HOWEVER, AREAS NEAR
THE TRI-STATE BORDER HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IF THE CLOUDS BREAK FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO A 5-
10% CHANCE THAT WE SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS TODAY.
LOCATION FOR THESE SHOWERS IS VERY MUCH UNKNOWN AND COULD POP-UP
ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. THE REASON LOCATION CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW IS
BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SO FAST AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY IS SO SCATTERED THAT THESE LITTLE SHOWERS OF PRECIPITATION
AND VIRGA WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY. THERE IS A ~2% CHANCE THAT A
STORM COULD TAP INTO SOME MILD INSTABILITY AND DOWNBURST, PRODUCING
45-50 KTS WINDS. THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASES TO AROUND 15%
AFTER 0Z, AS THE LOW LEVEL DEW POINT DEPRESSION DECREASES FROM
DIURNAL COOLING, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT DECREASES.
OVERNIGHT, THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15-25 KTS ARE STILL EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER 6Z. AFTER 6Z, WINDS WILL WEAKEN FOR 1-3 HOURS AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING COLD FRONT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CROSSING THE
ROCKIES.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY FIRST
AROUND 11Z AND FINALLY BE THROUGH THE CWA AROUND 0Z. WITH THE COLD
FRONT, EXPECT A SHARP CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTIONS TO BE COMING FROM
THE NORTH, AND GUSTS TO RAPIDLY RETURN TO AROUND 25-35 KTS. AS WE
GET CLOSER TO SUNSET, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SOME, LEADING TO
GRADUALLY WEAKENING WINDS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
WITH THE COLD FRONT, WE EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION FIRE
OFF. THIS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT OVER THE CWA. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS WITHIN THE WIDESPREAD RAIN. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN WE RECEIVE. MORE
INFORMATION ABOUT THE PRECIPITATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE HYDROLOGY
SECTION BELOW.
SATURDAY WILL HAVE A MAJOR CONTRAST FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO
THE COLD FRONT. THE NORTHWESTERN CWA WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S
WHILE AREAS IN AND AROUND GRAHAM COUNTY WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 70S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 50, WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA.
TUESDAY MORNING, AS WE'RE EXPECTING THE PRECIPITATION TO BE TAPERING
OFF, TEMPERATURES NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER LOOK TO BE COOLING TO
AROUND FREEZING. IF THERE IS ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
MORNING, SOME SNOW COULD MIX IN, ALTHOUGH NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT WE HAVE PASSED THE END OF THE
GROWING SEASON, SO WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FROST OR FREEZE
PRODUCTS FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
ON SUNDAY AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WILL PROVIDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS STILL
PERSISTENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. DURING
THIS TIME, A HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WILL START
BRINGING IN LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH THE VORTICITY AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION, THIS COULD LEAD TO LONG LASTING SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA).
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (70%) THAT RAIN TOTALS COULD EXCEED A
TENTH (0.10) OF AN INCH OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
DURING THIS EVENT, NORTHERLY COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONSISTENTLY COOL DOWN TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AND THEN COOLING
5 TO 7 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MID 30S IN THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CWA AND THEN COOL DOWN AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 8 DEGREES
TUESDAY. WITH THIS, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
INTRODUCING A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE
THIS MIX IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM VONA, COLORADO TO SWANSON
LAKE AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
ON TUESDAY, THE PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME UNCERTAIN AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND SLIDES NORTH OVER THE KANSAS-NEBRASKA STATE LINE.
ONCE IT MOVES THROUGH, A RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA.
WHILE IT IS FAVORED FOR THE RIDGE TO PASS THROUGH ON TUESDAY,
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITHIN GUIDANCE THAT COULD EITHER
SPEED UP OR DELAY THE RIDGE. IF THE RIDGE SPEEDS UP, THIS COULD
LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA SOONER THAN EXPECTED AND
HELP TEMPERATURES INCREASE. IF THE RIDGE SLOWS DOWN, WE THEN
COULD SEE SHOWERS MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. AFTER THIS, THE RIDGE WILL LEAD INTO A WARMING
TREND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 PM MDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. OVERNIGHT, OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS ARE
EXPECTED AT KGLD AND KMCK. ADDITIONALLY, LLWS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AT 40-45 KTS AROUND 200 FEET AGL IS EXPECTED. THE LLWS WILL
PERSIST UNTIL GUSTS OF 25+ KTS MIX TO THE SURFACE AROUND
SUNRISE. DURING THE DAY, MAXIMUM GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND
35-40 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WE ARE EXPECTING A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM CROSSING OVER THE ROCKIES TO
PROVIDE PROLONGED FORCING TO A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN
ADVECTED IN FROM THE GULF THANKS TO DAYS OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE LOW'S APPROACH. WPC HAS ISSUED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOKS SHOWING PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THESE
OUTLOOKS AREN'T UNFOUNDED, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR FLASH FLOODING, WHICH
THAT OUTLOOK FOCUSES ON, IS LESS THAN 15%. REASON BEING, THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE A PARTICULAR TIME WHEN HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING OVER
MOST OF THE CWA AND A BAND OF UP TO 3 INCHES BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS IS LIKELY TOO HIGH OF QPF VALUES, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ENSEMBLE MEANS. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST MOST OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE
0.5-1.25 INCHES AND A BAND OF UP TO 2 INCHES. THESE VALUES SEEM MORE
REALISTIC.
THIS BAND OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WHERE THE COLD
FRONT STALLS OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, CREATING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AS
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW TO THE NORTHWEST DUKE IT OUT.
THIS WILL BE A NORTH-NORTHEAST/SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND, WITH
ITS NORTHERN EXTENT LIKELY NOT CROSSING I-70. THE BAND MAY SETUP
ANYWHERE BETWEEN U.S. 385 AND U.S. 83. WHEREVER THE BAND SETS UP,
THERE WILL BE A 30% CHANCE OF AREAL AND/OR RIVER FLOODING. LOW WATER
CROSSINGS WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST AREAS IMPACTED FROM ANY FLOODING
THAT DOES OCCUR.
IT'S WORTH NOTING, THERE IS A 25% CHANCE THAT THE BOUNDARY DOES NOT
REMAIN VERY STATIONARY AND "BOUNCES" BACK AND FORTH. IF THIS OCCURS,
A WELL DEFINED BAND OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY NOT FORM
AND THE RISK OF FLOODING LOWERS TO AROUND 10%.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA/MOELLER
AVIATION...CA
HYDROLOGY...CA
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