432
FXUS63 KGLD 232349
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
549 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN COLORADO. A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO UP TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE.
- STRONG COLD FRONT SATURDAY BRINGS IN PROLONGED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL THROUGH MONDAY. LOW CHANCE OF FLOODING FROM THIS
SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT IS
SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST. THIS CONTINUES TO PUT THE AREA IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT, BRINGING IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND KEEPING SOME
CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS POSITIONED ROUGHLY AROUND THE NE/SD/WY BORDER WITH A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FROM THE SOUTH. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY WITH THE
SLOW UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION AND THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN
ROUGHLY IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW TO MID 80S.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETUP BY THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS ACTIVITY, LIKELY LEADING TO PULSE STORMS DEVELOPING
AND FADING QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL A 5% CHANCE THAT
ONE OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE A WIND GUST UP TO 65 MPH AND SOME
BLOWING DUST. THE LIKELY TIME FRAME WOULD BE FROM 5PM-8PM. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD END AROUND 8PM AS ANY AVAILABLE CAPE IS USED AND THE
SURFACE FORCING BECOMES WEAKER. THE WINDS SHOULD ALSO LOWER TO
AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AS THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS A
BIT.
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
BOTH THE STORMS AND THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OVER. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO PUSH IN LATE IN THE NIGHT WITH
THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THICK CLOUD COVER
SOUTH OF I-70 BY SUNRISE, AND MAYBE EVEN SOME FOG. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE WEST, TO THE 60S IN THE EAST.
SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO START A LONG DURATION RAIN EVENT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS FORECAST TO TURN INTO MORE OF A CUT-
OFF LOW THAT MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH MOISTURE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE STREAMING IN AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING, SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND STREAM NORTH. WITH
THE EARLY START, INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE LOW AND CAUSE MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION TO BE SHOWERS. THIS MAY ALSO LEAD TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE TO START THE DAY, BEFORE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER FORCING IMPROVES. SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE UNLIKELY THROUGH THE DAY WITH INSTABILITY LIKELY
REMAINING LIMITED. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CAP IN THE
60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH A FEW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND/OR IF
CLOUD COVER BRIEFLY BREAKS. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTH
AS THE FRONT PASSES WITH SPEEDS AROUND 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AND LESS INTENSE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. EVEN SO, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING FROM THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE AREA. WHILE THE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BREAK, COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM
THE NORTH AND HELP LOWER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE 30S AND 40S. AS
LONG AS WE DON'T CLEAR, FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY AND
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MAYBE SHIFT MORE TOWARDS THE
CENTER OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. THIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ANY
EARLY RAIN TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA, BUT KEEP COVERAGE
LIMITED WITH FORCING FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE. FOG WOULD BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IF PRECIPITATION STAYS
MORE ISOLATED AND STRUGGLES TO FORM. TEMPERATURES ARE UNLIKELY TO
WARM MUCH WITH FOG AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER EAST AND
BEGIN PUSHING THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. WITH THIS, ANY LINGERING
RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 60S
FOR THOSE WHO CLEAR. THE REST OF THE AREA (LIKELY NW KANSAS) SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE 50S AS LONG AS THE CLOUD COVER HOLDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
TUESDAY, WE ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDER A WEAK RIDGE WITH A DIGGING
TROUGH WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 60S FOR THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(CWA).
OUR REGION IS ON THE BACK END OF A WEAK JET STREAK, SO WE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN
CWA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH LINGERING CLOUD
COVER FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION COULD PREVENT STRONGER WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN. IF SKIES COMPLETELY CLEAR, OR CLEAR EARLIER, WE COULD
SEE STRONGER WINDS. MODELS ARE A BIT CONFLICTED WITH THE WIND
POTENTIAL. NBM PROBABILITIES HAVE AROUND A 50% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS
OVER 35 MPH FOR OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. LREF HAS
PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AROUND 10%.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN PLEASANT WEDNESDAY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE 60S ACROSS THE
AREA. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OF THE WEST COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. OUR SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE EJECTED ACROSS THE REGION.
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ARE AROUND 30-40% WITH LOW QPF
AMOUNTS.
LOOKING PAST FRIDAY, WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RETURN TO MORE OF AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
FOR KGLD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST UNTIL AROUND 12-13Z. FROM
00Z-12Z, EXPECT CEILINGS TO BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 6000
FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AND AROUND
15-20 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS. FROM 00-05Z, THERE COULD BE
STORM OR TWO THAT DEVELOPS AND CREATES GUSTS AROUND 50-55 KTS,
BUT THE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINAL.
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST UNTIL
12-13Z. BEGINNING AROUND 12-13Z, WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
UNTIL AROUND 16Z, WHERE THEY WILL COME FROM THE NORTH AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE WINDS GENERALLY SHOULD BE AROUND 10-15
KTS WITH THE OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 30 KTS. WITH THIS FRONT THERE
SHOULD BE LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS, THIS WILL LIKELY
DROP FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
FOR KMCK, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST UNTIL AROUND 15-16Z. FROM
00Z-16Z, EXPECT CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO AROUND 3500 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM THE SOUTH
AND BE AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO START THE PERIOD, LASTING UNTIL AROUND
11-12Z. BEGINNING AROUND 12Z, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
COME FROM THE NORTH BY 16-17Z, AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
THROUGH. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30
KTS. WITH THIS FRONT THERE SHOULD BE LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOWER
CEILINGS, THIS WILL LIKELY DROP FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WE ARE EXPECTING A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM CROSSING OVER THE ROCKIES TO
PROVIDE PROLONGED FORCING TO A WARM, MOIST AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN
ADVECTED IN FROM THE GULF THANKS TO DAYS OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE LOW'S APPROACH. WPC HAS ISSUED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOKS SHOWING PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THESE
OUTLOOKS AREN'T UNFOUNDED, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR FLASH FLOODING, WHICH
THAT OUTLOOK FOCUSES ON, IS LESS THAN 15%. REASON BEING, THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE A PARTICULAR TIME WHEN HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING OVER
MOST OF THE CWA AND A BAND OF UP TO 3 INCHES BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS IS LIKELY TOO HIGH OF QPF VALUES, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
ENSEMBLE MEANS. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST MOST OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE
0.5-1.25 INCHES AND A BAND OF UP TO 2 INCHES. THESE VALUES SEEM MORE
REALISTIC.
THIS BAND OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WHERE THE COLD
FRONT STALLS OUT SATURDAY NIGHT, CREATING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY AS
THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW TO THE NORTHWEST DUKE IT OUT.
THIS WILL BE A NORTH-NORTHEAST/SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND, WITH
ITS NORTHERN EXTENT LIKELY NOT CROSSING I-70. THE BAND MAY SETUP
ANYWHERE BETWEEN U.S. 385 AND U.S. 83. WHEREVER THE BAND SETS UP,
THERE WILL BE A 30% CHANCE OF AREAL AND/OR RIVER FLOODING. LOW WATER
CROSSINGS WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST AREAS IMPACTED FROM ANY FLOODING
THAT DOES OCCUR.
IT'S WORTH NOTING, THERE IS A 25% CHANCE THAT THE BOUNDARY DOES NOT
REMAIN VERY STATIONARY AND "BOUNCES" BACK AND FORTH. IF THIS OCCURS,
A WELL DEFINED BAND OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY NOT FORM
AND THE RISK OF FLOODING LOWERS TO AROUND 10%.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...RHOADES
AVIATION...HOLDREN
HYDROLOGY...CA
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