988
FXUS62 KJAX 150029
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
729 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 729 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
TOOK THUNDER MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
REMAINED MAINLY LIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
THIS AFTERNOON...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. HIGHS STILL REACHING INTO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE FL AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS AND INTO UPPER
70S/NEAR 80F ACROSS SE GA, WHERE SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SE GA BEFORE REACHING THE NE FL AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT, NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER. ANY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT
QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS TO
25-30 MPH EXPECTED AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE. SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS SE GA TOWARDS MORNING AS
COOLER AIR MASS PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 50S, WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE
ACROSS MOST OF NE FL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 OVER
INLAND NE FL AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE NE FL COASTAL AREAS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.
SHORT TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
COOL FRONT WILL BE JUST ABOUT CLEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA TO
START FRIDAY, USHERING IN A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AREA-
WIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
THOUGH EXPECT ALL TO BE DRY BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND A MODEST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 70S, AND
PERHAPS NOT EVEN MAKING IT TO 70 OVER FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA.
LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 40S INTERIOR TO THE 50S NEAR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN
AND TOWARDS THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINTAINING VERY FAIR CONDITIONS AND
WINDS STARTING TO EASE A BIT WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
NORTHEASTERLY. A BIT MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN A FEW
CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST FL COAST, BUT OTHERWISE ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ONCE AGAIN, AS WELL AS
SIMILARLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
THE START OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES THE BENIGN PATTERN FROM THE
SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
AROUND THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE PROGRESSION OF TROPICAL STORM SARA, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR A SIMILAR TIME
FRAME. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH RESPECT TO IMPACTS, IF ANY,
AS GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO NAIL DOWN SARA'S INTERACTION WITH LAND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE SHORT TERM, FOLLOWED BY INTERACTION
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT/UPPER TROUGH IN THE LONG RANGE. THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE POTENTIAL HAZARD AT THIS TIME WILL BE PERIODS
OF BENEFICIAL HEAVY RAINFALL TOWARDS MID NEXT WEEK AS LAYER
MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OVER THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES START NEAR AVERAGE SUNDAY, TRENDING ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES TONIGHT
BRINGING LIGHT SHOWERS, DRIZZLE AND MVFR CEILINGS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE (12Z). WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME BREEZY AFTER 12Z WITH WINDS 10-12G15-18
KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS OF
4-6 FT AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TONIGHT WITH SCEC HEADLINES
STILL ON TRACK, THEN SURGE OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 20-25
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND HAVE RAISED SCA HEADLINES THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS
ON SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AND LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS. THEN HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS RENEWED SURGE OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS EXPECTED
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY. SURF/BREAKERS OF 3-5 FT TODAY
WILL REBUILD BACK INTO THE 4-6 FT RANGE ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY, BUT
APPEAR TO FALL SHORT OF HIGH SURF CRITERIA AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION DURING TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
THE NE FL/SE GA BEACHES AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN FOR EACH HIGH
TIDE CYCLE AS RENEWED SURGE OF NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IS
EXPECTED BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT AND WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FROM THE UPCOMING FULL MOON
CYCLE WILL SET UP A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MINOR COASTAL/TIDAL
FLOODING DURING THIS TIME FRAME OF 2.0 TO 2.5 FT ABOVE MHHW ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST AND 1.5 TO 2.0 FT ABOVE MHHW ALONG THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR POSSIBLY REACHING
LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING VALUES DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AT THIS TIME. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING MAY LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SURGE OF NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE NEXT COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY AND THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO COVER THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS WELL, BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT DUE
TO WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, NOVEMBER 14TH:
KJAX: 84/2008
KCRG: 84/2008
KAMG: 85/1993
KGNV: 86/1955
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 19TH:
KJAX: 84/1958
KCRG: 82/1984
KAMG: 82/1942
KGNV: 90/1906
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 51 70 45 70 / 30 0 0 0
SSI 56 70 54 70 / 20 0 0 0
JAX 56 72 51 73 / 20 0 0 0
SGJ 60 71 59 73 / 20 0 0 0
GNV 57 73 49 75 / 20 0 0 0
OCF 60 75 50 77 / 20 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ033-038-
124-125-132-133-137-138-225-325.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
133-138.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ450-452-
454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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