775
FXUS62 KJAX 151003
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
503 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 234 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL S OF THE WATERS TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TO THE N TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. THE HIGH
WILL BE CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUEASDAY, SUPPORTING
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE AREA WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING IN FROM THE EAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE DRY
CONDITIONS LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INLAND WITH A FEW CLOUDS
HANGING OUT AROUND THE COAST. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MID 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR
INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS STICK AROUND AT THE START OF THE WEEK AND
SLOWLY GIVE WAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS MOISTURE BUILDS, FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BEGIN TO MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS OF RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY (30-50%) WITH CHANCES LOWERING BELOW
20% BY THURSDAY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND SLOWLY COOL INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS START IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND
COOLING INTO THE 40S BY THE WEEKS END.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
SATELLITE SHOWS LARGE AREA OF CIGS BKN010-015 ACROSS SRN GA, MORE
SUBSTANTIAL THAN GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SUGGESTING, SPREADING
SOUTHWARD. THIS AREA MAY DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE MORNING,
BUT WILL LIKELY YIELD THESE CIGS IN MOST TAF SITES DURING THE
12Z-15Z PERIOD BEFORE DIMINISHING. UPDATED TAFS EARLIER TO SHOW
THIS POTENTIAL, AND WILL SHOW IT MORE IN UPCOMING 12Z TAFS. VFR
EXPECTED AFTER 15Z WITH NORTHERLY WINDS 8-12 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL S OF THE WATERS TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TO THE N TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS.
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUEASDAY,
SUPPORTING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 69 45 71 45 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 70 54 71 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 72 49 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 71 59 73 60 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 73 49 76 50 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 76 50 78 53 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ033-038-
124-125-132-133-137-138-225-325.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-
133-138.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ450-
452-454.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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