964
FXUS62 KJAX 161007
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
507 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME COASTAL
WATERS CLOUDINESS THAT MAY AFFECT COASTAL COUNTIES OF NE FL TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER-MID 90S, A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE. THIS WILL CREATE DRY CONDITIONS LEADING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES INLAND WITH A FEW CLOUDS HANGING OUT AROUND THE
COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD IN OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO THE LOW 80S IN SOME AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S STAYING AROUND
LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH COASTAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. MONDAY, OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER AREA WIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S INLAND AND IN THE LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
MOISTURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO MAKE
ITS WAY IN BY WEDNESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE BRINGS HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEGINNING OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA. DRY AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AREA WIDE WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE LOW
80S WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE 40S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
SATELLITE SHOWS SCT-BKN040 AFFECTING JAX METRO AREA AND SGF AREA
TAF SITES...WITH SOME DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE PAST HOUR. MAY
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS WHILE CONTINUING TO DECREASE,
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH N TO NE SURFACE WINDS
6-10KTS TODAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY, THEN
SHIFT EAST OF THW WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, LIGHT
NE WINDS DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY STARTING MONDAY,
THEN INCREASE IN SPEED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY
OFFSHORE COMPONENT FOR SEAS UP TO 7 FT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
WEDNESDAY, WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS
RESULTING IN POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK NE FL/SE GA TODAY, HIGH RISK NE FL/
MODERATE RISK SE GA SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 150 PM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WITH THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
THE MAJORITY AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS, THE HIGHEST TIDE WHICH MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID-
MORNING SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 71 45 74 47 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 71 55 72 56 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 73 52 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 73 58 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 75 51 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 77 52 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ033-038-124-
125-132-133-137-138-225-325.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-133-
138.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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