778
FXUS62 KJAX 170003
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
703 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
NO MAJOR UPDATES REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENTS ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA OCCURRING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE VOID OF MOISTURE ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY
(THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT) ALLOWING EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT AMID LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT (THIS MORNING) WITH
LOWS SPANNING THE MID/UPPER 40S IN INLAND SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY
WHILE THE REST OF INLAND NE FL BOTTOMS OUT IN THE LOW/MID 50S. WEAK
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE COAST A BIT WARMER, GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS, AREAS OF PATCHY, MAINLY LIGHT, FOG MAY
DEVELOP GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY SLOWLY DRIFTS TOWARDS JUST
EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
LIGHT RETURN FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BUMP UP A
BIT COMPARED TO TODAY FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THOUGH STILL
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH A FEW SPOTS NEAR 80
INLAND. A FEW MORE DIURNAL AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY, BUT STILL MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS AND DRIER/LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND VERY SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING, LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT COULD EASILY DROP TO LEVELS LOWER THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY INLAND. LIKELY MID 40S TO LOW 50S INLAND SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH SOME UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER. MORE MILD
MONDAY - MAINLY 50S EXCEPT FOR LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE SAME USUAL
WARMER SPOTS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
CHANGES IN THE PATTERN START TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST, WITH MILD SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
THROUGHOUT TUESDAY. STILL SLIGHT DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, HOWEVER GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE FROPA TIMING OF TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THIS NON DIURNAL TIMING WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THE SAME FRONT WILL PICK UP PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT'S EXPECTED TO BE THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM SARA MOVING INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PWATS OF 2+ INCHES COMBINED WITH LIFTING FROM A RATHER POTENT
FRONT WILL CERTAINLY INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES AND PERHAPS SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER, THE SAVING GRACE WILL BE THE
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE FROPA, WHICH COULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT. TEMPERATURES FOR THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE FALL SEASON SO FAR WILL FOLLOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, BRINGING IN TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE.
WE WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH AND IN THE DRAINAGE
FLOW FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, AND
THEREFORE BELOW/SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECASTED
PERIOD WITH A POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENTS
AFFECTING INLAND SITES AND SSI BETWEEN AROUND 09-12Z. WINDS WILL
BE MILD AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOME MORE DEFINED FROM
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS OFFSHORE FOR
SMALL CRAFT AND NOVICE VESSEL OPERATORS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE LOWERING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND
THEN SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE POWERFUL FRONT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A MODERATE ONSHORE SWELL AND ELEVATED SURF.
LOWERING SURF AND LIGHT FLOW WILL REDUCE RISK EARLY THIS WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND WITH THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 44 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 55 72 55 75 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 51 76 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 58 75 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 50 78 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 52 79 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ033-038-124-
125-132-133-137-138-225-325.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ124-125-133-
138.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GAZ154-166.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ470-472-474.
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