978
FXUS62 KJAX 171731 AAA
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1231 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 224 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SATELLITE CURRENTLY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
AREA, WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS APPROACHING FROM THE W. SUNSHINE
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S, EXCEPT UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INLAND AREAS, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH CALM WIND.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MONDAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY DURING THE
DAY FROM MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY THE EVENING HOURS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY, CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO INCREASE, BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN
THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. RAIN WILL START FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE IN OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND CONTINUE INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 80S IN SOME AREAS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
GETTING INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. COASTAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
TIMING FOR THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION DIFFERS A BIT
BETWEEN MODELS BUT IT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THIS FRONT, ALONG WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
DAY, WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, DRY AIR WILL FILL IN
BEHIND IT CLEARING OUT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF INTO THE 60S FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO
AT LEAST THE START OF TONIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. SCT
DIURNAL CUMULUS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME BKN AT TIMES, MAINLY SOUTH OF
SSI, THOUGH HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 030. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST WHERE MVFR AND IFR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FAIR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY ONCE ANY FG BURNS OFF THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 224 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT,
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND APPROACH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS.
RIP CURRENTS: TODAY: HIGH RISK NE FL/MOD RISK SE GA
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 224 AM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING
LEADING TO WINDS BELOW 10 MPH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
LIGHTER WINDS WILL CREATE PATCHY LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE FRONT LOWERING MINRH VALUES TEMPORARILY INTO THE 30S
THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 45 76 53 77 / 0 0 0 20
SSI 54 75 62 78 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 50 79 57 82 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 57 77 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 51 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 52 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ033-
038-124-125-132-133-137-138-225-325.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-
133-138.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-
166.
AM...NONE.
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