428
FXUS62 KJAX 180648
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
148 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 148 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S COAST, 75-80 RANGE INLAND, ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
MOISTURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL START OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEGINING AROUND THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS
AND SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS DRY AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, REACHING INTO THE LOW 80S OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. TUESDAY NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 60S
AREA WIDE. WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S BUT DROP INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
DRY AIR FILLS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LEAVING VERY LITTLE
MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A FEW CLOUDS
HERE AND THERE AT TIMES. WINDS OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST LOOK TO
BE A BIT BREEZY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, BECOMING CALMER OVER THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AREA WIDE
BUT SHOULD WARM UP SLIGHTLY BY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S, POSSIBLY TOUCHING INTO THE 30S AT SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG EXPECTED THROUGH DAWN AROUND TAF SITES,
WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF DENSE FOG. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT TAF SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 148 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY, RESULTING IN
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FROM THE NORHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SUPPORTING ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING
LEADING TO WINDS BELOW 10 MPH. THESE LIGHTER WINDS WILL CREATE
PATCHY LOW DAYTIME DISPERSION OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEGINNING IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY COULD SEE
SOME LOW DISPERSION VALUES NEAR THE COAST AS WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE
TO THE WEST-NOTRTHWEST. DRY AIR WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT
LOWERING MINRH VALUES TEMPORARILY INTO THE 25-30% RANGE THURSDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 148 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
LATEST GAGE READINGS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS STILL INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING ALONG ST. JOHNS RIVER, WITH GAGES
ALONG THE COAST LIKELY TO BE IN ACTION STAGE. SO WILL REISSUE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ST. JOHNS RIVER FOR TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 76 53 77 62 / 0 0 20 60
SSI 74 61 78 66 / 0 0 0 50
JAX 77 55 81 66 / 0 0 0 50
SGJ 76 62 81 67 / 0 0 0 40
GNV 79 56 81 65 / 0 0 0 60
OCF 79 58 83 66 / 0 0 0 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ033-038-132-137-225-325.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page