865
FXUS62 KJAX 181753
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1253 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
...NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER TX MOVES INTO THE SE
US TONIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE LOCAL WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY USHER IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. DRY
AIR (PWATS 0.5-0.6 IN.) AND SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SQUASH ALL
RAIN CHANCES INTO TONIGHT. DESPITE A MOSTLY DRY COLUMN, LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS CAUSED BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S AND REACHING
AROUND 80 FOR MARION COUNTY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID-
UPPER 50S INLAND AND IN THE LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
TUESDAY...WARM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE SURGES NE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND INTO
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS BREAKING OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THERE, WHILE MOST OF NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
10-15G20-25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL PUSH MAX TEMPS TO NEAR
RECORD LEVELS INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NE FL AND INTO THE UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 ACROSS SE GA.
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE MOISTURE BAND GETS PULLED FROM THE NE GULF ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT ANY OF THE REMNANTS OF SARA/DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES OR SO IS MAINLY LIMITED TO THE
NE FL REGION, BUT OVERALL EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG WITH A
FEW POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT SINCE MOST LOCATIONS HAVE NOT
RECEIVED RAINFALL THIS MONTH, IT WILL BE MAINLY BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL. SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT EXPECTING
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE.
WEDNESDAY...TRAILING STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTERACT WITH ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO KICK OFF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/EMBEDDED STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE
A FEW GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS HIGHS
SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE DEPENDING ON
AMOUNT OF SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE DAY AND TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FOR THE TUE/WED EVENT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 0.50-1.00 INCHES
AREA-WIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE
ACROSS NE FL AND INLAND SE GA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
AVAILABLE, WHILE COASTAL SE GA WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE LOWEST
STORM TOTALS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES ON BREEZY
NW WINDS AT 15G25 MPH WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 40S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. SKIES WILL BECOME
CLEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A 30-40 DEGREE DROP IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING LOW TEMPS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S, WITH A REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
MONDAY AS A COLDER AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT TIMES WITH LESSER WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S OVER INLAND AREAS AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS OVER INLAND AREAS, SO PATCHY FROST CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
SOME PORTIONS OF INLAND SE GA AND ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TO THE
WEST OF JAX INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, BUT STILL TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE IF ANY FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED. OTHER NIGHTS AND
LOCATIONS EXPECT OVERALL LOW TEMPS TO BE IN THE 40S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WITH A BROKEN CLOUD DECK AROUND
4,000 FT ARE EXPECTED. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT VQQ IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO CAUTION LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
WATERS ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SUPPORTING
ADVISORY- LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20G25-30 MPH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR CRITICAL RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT TO
CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT ANY POTENTIAL RED
FLAG HEADLINES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS
DURING THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 905 AM EST MON NOV 18 2024
PREVIOUS HIGH TIDE CYCLE PEAKED IN ACTION STAGE FOR PORTIONS OF
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER MAINLY NORTH OF RACY POINT. HAVE ENDED THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR DUVAL AND CLAY COUNTIES. DUE TO TRAPPED
TIDES, PORTIONS OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO STILL PEAK INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HIGH TIDE CYCLES ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY NOVEMBER 19TH AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES...
JAX 84/1958
CRG 82/1984
GNV 90/1906
AMG 82/1942
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 54 79 63 77 / 0 60 70 30
SSI 62 77 66 78 / 0 20 50 40
JAX 58 82 65 79 / 0 10 50 50
SGJ 62 81 66 79 / 0 0 40 50
GNV 57 82 65 78 / 0 0 60 50
OCF 58 83 65 79 / 0 0 50 50
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ033-038-137.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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