936
FXUS62 KJAX 191255
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
755 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 745 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR WARM DAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S
ACROSS NE FL AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 ACROSS SE GA. ENOUGH MOISTURE
SHOULD SPILL NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA TO START TO
TRIGGER LATE DAY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY OF INLAND NORTH FL, WITH LOW CHANCES AROUND 10-20%
OF AN EMBEDDED/ISOLATED STORM. THIS MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER
AND ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN THE 60S.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK FOR
0.50-1.00 INCH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF I-75, WITH
LESSER VALUES OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
COUNTIES.
DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY NOVEMBER 19TH AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES...
JAX 84/1958
CRG 82/1984
GNV 90/1906
AMG 82/1942
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
MOISTURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
START OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE TO NUMEROUS IN THE EVENING HOURS, SLOWLY MOVING FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA OVERNIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S STAYING SLIGHTLY WARMER ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
WED & WED NIGHT...NEEDED RAINFALL OVERSPREADS NE FL WED MORNING
WITH 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL LIKELY AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2-3
INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED EMBEDDED T'STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WED
AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS SE GA AND THEN LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS NE FL, WHEN MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST INSTABILITY
ACTUALLY LAGS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM, WITH
MAINLY SHOWERS EXPECTED WED MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE BETTER INSTABILITY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WED AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING, BUT WHEN
DRIER MID AND UPPER LEVEL AIR BEGIN TO INVADE FROM THE WNW.
DESPITE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL (GENERALLY 10% OR LESS)
WITH THIS SYSTEM, STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH BULK
SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS AND A LACK OF A LOW LEVEL JET. SOME GUSTIER
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN T'STORMS, BUT SHOULD GENERALLY BE 40 MPH OR
LESS. RAINFALL TAPERS OFF QUICKLY ACROSS SE GA BY MID AFTERNOON
THEN NE FL BY WED EVENING AS DRIER AIR INVADES FROM THE WNW
CLEARING SKIES INTO WED NIGHT AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES.
BY DAYBREAK THU MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE
40S ACROSS SE GA AND MOST OF NE FL, ABOUT 15-20 DEG COOLER THAN
LOW WED MORNING (24 HRS PRIOR).
THU & THU NIGHT...COLD AIR ADVECTION UNDER GUSTY WNW WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN FULL FORCE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN
THE 60S WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH, POTENTIALLY NEAR 35 MPH AT
TIMES. WIND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THU WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED WELL WEST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE TX GULF COAST AND
WEAKER 'DRY' SURFACE FRONTS NNE OF AREA MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED WIND
GRADIENT AS COOL AND DRY AIR FUNNELS SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL
US. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW-MID 40S WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY DAYBREAK FRI MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
FRIDAY & SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. BREEZY WNW WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH AT TIMES
CONTINUE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST
REGION AND RE-ENFORCING 'DRY' COOL FRONTS PIVOTING OFFSHORE OF THE
CAROLINAS. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE WEST AND THE
FRONTS TO THE NNE WILL CONTINUE THE COOL AND DRY NW FLOW. DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS ARE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
VALUES WITH COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT, WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.
SUNDAY & MONDAY...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER BUT WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION SUNDAY AND THEN DIRECTLY OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
BEGIN TO BACK FROM NW TO W, WITH A WARMING TREND IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
70 AND THEN LOW-MID 70S BY MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT THEN 50S BY MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST AND LOW LEVEL SSW WINDS ADVECT WARMER AIR AND SHALLOW
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. FOG POTENTIAL INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
WINDS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY, REACHING UP TO 8-10
KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THIS EVENING AS AN
APPROACHING FRONT INCREASES CLOUD COVER AND CEILINGS BEGIN TO DROP
AROUND 03-05Z BECOMING IFR AROUND 07-08Z. PRECIPITATION STARTS
AROUND 04-05Z AT MOST SITES, REACHING SGJ AROUND 07Z. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FOR
THE NEXT TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 401 AM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
MOISTURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TO CAUTION LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, SUPPORTING ADVISORY-
LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
BEACHES TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST MON NOV 18 2024
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20G25-30 MPH ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR CRITICAL RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT TO
CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT ANY POTENTIAL RED
FLAG HEADLINES WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THAT OCCURS
DURING THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 78 63 76 44 / 90 100 30 0
SSI 77 66 78 49 / 10 90 40 10
JAX 82 66 80 47 / 10 90 50 10
SGJ 81 66 77 52 / 0 80 60 10
GNV 82 65 78 47 / 10 80 60 10
OCF 84 66 79 49 / 0 80 70 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ038-
137.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page