621
FXUS62 KJAX 200827
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
327 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
..MORNING SHOWERS, THEN MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
RAIN CONTINUES THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY
INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED AS IT MOVES THROUGH INTO THE AFTERNOON. DRY AIR WILL
FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONT, CUTTING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OFF BY
THE EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
REACHING INTO THE LOW 80S IN SOME AREAS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND MID
40S TO LOW 50 OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED UNDER
BREEZY WNW WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH EACH DAY AS THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ELEVATED BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES AND RE-ENFORCING DRY
COLD FRONTS MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN TO THE
MID 60S ACROSS OUR NORTH-CENTRAL FL ZONES, ABOUT 8-12 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO MID 40S COAST THU NIGHT WITH
ELEVATED WINDS MAKING WIND CHILLS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FRIDAY
MORNING. BY SATURDAY MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FURTHER
INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S COAST WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
LOWER 30S INLAND TO MID 30S COAST BY DAYBREAK. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (< 10%) OF PATCHY INLAND FROST SATURDAY MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AS ELEVATED
WINDS WILL KEEP ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST
FORMATION.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE AS WINDS RELAX WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DRY AIR
IN PLACE, TRENDED LOWS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF NBM GUIDANCE FOR
MID 30S INLAND, WITH HIGHER FROST FORMATION POTENTIAL GIVEN NEAR
CALM WINDS. SUNDAY, WARMER WSW WINDS DEVELOP AS THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC COAST, WITH A
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING STRETCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, WARMER SW FLOW DEVELOPS, WHICH
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S WITH A CONTINUATION OF CHILLY NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO 50S BY MON/TUE NIGHTS GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN
PLACE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. ANTICIPATE DAILY SEA
BREEZES MON/TUE WHICH WILL GRADUALLY RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
AND INCREASE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
CEILINGS HAVE STARTED TO LOWER AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
RAIN/SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE TAF SITES. HIGH CHANCES AT ALL SITES OF
IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOW CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR FL TAF SITES SO HAVE LEFT OUT AT THIS
TIME AND WILL REEVALUATE FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT BY 18-19Z, WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
POSSIBLE UNTIL 01Z. MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS HIGHER CHANCE OF MVFR
TO VFR CIGS WOULD BE ABOUT 22Z-01Z AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILL IN
BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SOUTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO CAUTION LEVELS TODAY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
ALL WATERS IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST OVER ALL AREA WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO MARGINALLY MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OFFSHORE DOMINATING
THE SURF ZONE AND SURF/BREAKERS FALLING INTO THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS SE GA THIS AFTERNOON THEN ACROSS NE FL BY EARLY EVENING.
MUCH COLDER, DRIER AND GUSTY WNW WINDS WILL TRAIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 MPH AND
LOW HUMIDITY NEAR 30% THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED, BUT A LOW FIRE DANGER
RISK DUE TO ELEVATED FUEL MOISTURE PRECLUDES ANY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
FOR THE LOCAL AREA. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. PATCHY INLAND FROST IS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 76 43 61 39 / 20 0 0 0
SSI 77 49 64 45 / 50 0 0 0
JAX 79 48 66 42 / 40 10 0 0
SGJ 78 51 66 47 / 60 0 0 0
GNV 79 47 64 40 / 40 0 0 0
OCF 81 49 66 42 / 50 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ450-452-454-474.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ470-472.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR AMZ470-
472.
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