102
FXUS62 KJAX 202346
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
646 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR,
WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW 0.5 INCHES OVERNIGHT FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 30 DEGREE
DROP FROM TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TONIGHT'S LOWS, MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, WITH THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AREA STAYING IN THE LOW 50S.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH GUSTING HIGHER BY SUNRISE.
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
A SERIES OF DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLDER, CLEAR CONDITIONS.
BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AT 15-20G30 MPH WILL DOMINATE DURING THE DAY
WITH 10G15-20 MPH WINDS REMAINING IN PLACE AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
REMAIN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AND
LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 OVER
INLAND AREAS AND IN THE 40S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S
OVER INLAND AREAS AND AT LEAST PATCHY FROST CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND
SUNRISE BOTH DAYS, BUT TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES. MAX TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND REBOUND CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LONG RANGE MODELS
STILL DIFFERING ON THE WHETHER THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY MID-WEEK OR PASS THROUGH AS A DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WARM UP TAKES PLACE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S/50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
SURFACE COLD FRONT, ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM CRG TO GNV AT 620 PM
EST, IS PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST FL THIS EVENING WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT. THIS MVFR CIG POTENTIAL
WAS INCLUDED IN THE LATEST NORTHEAST FL TAFS. CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED IN A FEW HOURS FOR ALL THE TAFS AS THE DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KT, WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT TONIGHT. THE GUSTINESS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BY
SUNRISE, ONLY TO START UP AGAIN BY MID MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING
DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FOR THE OUTER WATERS
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
WATER THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE BEGINNING THIS EVENING FOR THE NEAR SHORE
AND OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL DECREASE
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY BUT REMAIN NEAR 20 KNOTS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY, WITH SEAS SLOWLY DECLINING BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO MODERATE RISK FOR THE NE FL/SE GA BEACHES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE OFFSHORE
FLOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST WED NOV 20 2024
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH NEAR CRITICAL HUMIDITIES TO
PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS BOTH AFTERNOONS ALONG WITH
POCKETS OF HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
THIS WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE AND THE NEAR
CALM WINDS AROUND SUNRISE WILL SUPPORT LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
OVER INLAND AREAS AND PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 44 62 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 50 64 45 59 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 48 64 42 61 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 51 66 45 64 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 48 64 41 63 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 49 66 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ450-452-454-474.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
AMZ470-472.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page